Feb 3, 2018 · 11m · a16z

The Autonomy Ecosystem: The Value Chain (3 of 8)

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This presentation explores the monumental shift in the automotive value chain as autonomous, electric shared fleets replace personal gas-powered vehicles. It analyzes how vehicle manufacturing, interior design, specialized form factors, and software architecture will restructure the industry's economic power.

Chapters · click to jump

1 statement ▾

Chen: Shift to autonomous electric fleets may happen faster than expected open →

1 statement ▾

Chen: Autonomous car brands will matter as little as airplane manufacturers open →

1 statement ▾

Frank Chen: Fleet operators will prioritize safety and battery life over consumer features open →

1 statement ▾

Chen: 'Smartphone-ness' is replacing 'carness' as the primary vehicle buying criterion open →

1 statement ▾

Frank Chen: Autonomous vehicles will serve as custom mobile conference rooms open →

2 statements ▾

Freescale: Electronics and software will be 50% of car costs by 2030 open →

UBS teardown: LG accounted for 56% of the 2017 Chevy Bolt's cost open →

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 0.0 Guest teaching 7.3 Guest disagreement 0.3 The host pushing back 0.0

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

Sharpest disagreement ▶ 3:20 Dismissing traditional door sound engineering

Frank Chen humorously dismisses traditional car buying criteria like engineered door closure sounds as completely irrelevant for future autonomous fleet operators.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 0:00 No host pushback (Monologue)

The host does not speak during this monologue presentation, resulting in zero host pushback throughout.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:15 UBS Chevy Bolt teardown analysis

Frank Chen educates the audience with hard industry data from a UBS teardown showing LG accounts for 56% of the total manufacturing cost of a Chevy Bolt.

The host holds their own ▶ 0:00 No host hits back (Monologue)

The host is absent from the dialogue during this lecture, leaving no opportunity for host pushback or demonstrating host expertise.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each

Topic	Guest teaching	Guest disagreement	Why
Reconfiguring the Automotive Value Chain: The Airline Model	6	0	Frank Chen presents a solo monologue comparing the future autonomous fleet ecosystem to the commercial airline value chain. Because the host does not speak in this monologue segment, host expertise and host pushback are zero.
The Proliferation of Specialized Vehicle Form Factors	7	1	Frank details specialized vehicle form factors, citing Motor Trend reviews and Ford patents. Host participation is absent, keeping host scores at zero.
Modular Autonomous Pods and Highway Platooning Concepts	8	0	Frank discusses highway platooning and quotes semiconductor cost breakdowns from Freescale and UBS teardown data. The segment is a monologue, so host scores remain zero.
Software Infrastructure in Autonomous Navigation: DeepMap	8	0	Frank explains software infrastructure in self-driving cars, highlighting portfolio company DeepMap and strategic software dynamics. Host scores are zero due to the guest monologue format.

Statements from this episode (7)

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Chen: Shift to autonomous electric fleets may happen faster than expected

“We are at the very beginning of a profound shift that could happen a lot faster than any of us are expecting, and that shift is from owning and operating our own gas-burning vehicles to a world in which we're driven around in electric vehicles by fleets.”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 0:01

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Chen: Autonomous car brands will matter as little as airplane manufacturers

“The make and model of the car will become the least important, and in fact, you don't care about the decision in the same way that most of us don't care about whether we're riding in Boeing or Airbus or Embraer airplane.”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 1:39

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Frank Chen: Fleet operators will prioritize safety and battery life over consumer features

“If we go to fleets, this is going to become much less important a buying criteria. A fleet operator is going to be much more interested in safety and reliability and battery life and that type of thing compared to the sound the door makes when you close it.”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 2:44

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Chen: 'Smartphone-ness' is replacing 'carness' as the primary vehicle buying criterion

“One of the things that's already true about cars is the carness of the car. Has become much less important a buying criteria already, and the smartphone-ness of it has become much more important, and this trend will just accelerate into the future.”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 4:40

Insight

Frank Chen: Autonomous vehicles will serve as custom mobile conference rooms

“Here's another concept from the IDO designers, which is why not car as mobile office? So you have these big office spaces, conference rooms on wheels essentially, that you can take anywhere. So imagine doing a client presentation instead of in some nondescript…”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 7:23

Prediction Held up

Freescale: Electronics and software will be 50% of car costs by 2030

“Freescale, a semiconductor company, has already forecast that by 2030, 50% of the total cost of manufacturing a car will go to electronics and software providers as opposed to the traditional metal class rubber providers.”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 7:50

Assertion Supported

UBS teardown: LG accounted for 56% of the 2017 Chevy Bolt's cost

“As a concrete example of that, UBS tore down a 2017 Chevy Bolt and found that a full 56% of the cost of the Bolt is going to LG”

Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 8:04

The Autonomy Ecosystem: The Value Chain (3 of 8)

How this conversation actually went

Statements from this episode (7)

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