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Jan 2, 2019 · 12m · a16z

a16z Podcast | Verizon Plus AOL -- Why? -- The Short Answer is Mobile

Chris Dixon · 7m spoken Frank Chen · 2m spoken Michael Copeland · 1m spoken
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In this episode of the a16z podcast, hosts Michael Copeland, Frank Chen, and Chris Dixon analyze Verizon's $4.4 billion acquisition of AOL, examining how mobile video consumption, ad tech, and vertical integration drive major tech and telecom mergers.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 3.0 Guest teaching 4.0 Guest disagreement 1.0 The host pushing back 2.0
05100:0010:002:36–6:25 · The host as informed peer 3/10 AOL's Ad Tech, Cross-Device Tracking, and Video Ecosystem The host interventions are mostly conversational prompts, but Copeland briefly interrupts Frank Chen to clarify what 'crowdsourced' means in the context of studio production and later mentions Google Fi. The guests educate the host on cross-device ad tracking, user data, and AOL's video studio infrastructure.6:25–9:07 · The host as informed peer 1/10 Net Neutrality, Zero Rating, and Regulatory Considerations The host stays passive while Chris Dixon explains zero-rating regulatory workarounds and Frank Chen provides a historical masterclass on RCA's vertical integration. The tone remains highly collaborative and educational without pushback.9:07–12:32 · The host as informed peer 5/10 Ad Tech Acquisition Waves and Future Market Trends Copeland demonstrates preparation and expertise by citing Chris Dixon's tweet detailing the four historical waves of ad tech acquisitions. The guests break down why prior mobile waves fizzled out, and Copeland guides the summary.2:36–6:25 · Guest teaching 4/10 AOL's Ad Tech, Cross-Device Tracking, and Video Ecosystem The host interventions are mostly conversational prompts, but Copeland briefly interrupts Frank Chen to clarify what 'crowdsourced' means in the context of studio production and later mentions Google Fi. The guests educate the host on cross-device ad tracking, user data, and AOL's video studio infrastructure.6:25–9:07 · Guest teaching 5/10 Net Neutrality, Zero Rating, and Regulatory Considerations The host stays passive while Chris Dixon explains zero-rating regulatory workarounds and Frank Chen provides a historical masterclass on RCA's vertical integration. The tone remains highly collaborative and educational without pushback.9:07–12:32 · Guest teaching 3/10 Ad Tech Acquisition Waves and Future Market Trends Copeland demonstrates preparation and expertise by citing Chris Dixon's tweet detailing the four historical waves of ad tech acquisitions. The guests break down why prior mobile waves fizzled out, and Copeland guides the summary.2:36–6:25 · Guest disagreement 1/10 AOL's Ad Tech, Cross-Device Tracking, and Video Ecosystem The host interventions are mostly conversational prompts, but Copeland briefly interrupts Frank Chen to clarify what 'crowdsourced' means in the context of studio production and later mentions Google Fi. The guests educate the host on cross-device ad tracking, user data, and AOL's video studio infrastructure.6:25–9:07 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Net Neutrality, Zero Rating, and Regulatory Considerations The host stays passive while Chris Dixon explains zero-rating regulatory workarounds and Frank Chen provides a historical masterclass on RCA's vertical integration. The tone remains highly collaborative and educational without pushback.9:07–12:32 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Ad Tech Acquisition Waves and Future Market Trends Copeland demonstrates preparation and expertise by citing Chris Dixon's tweet detailing the four historical waves of ad tech acquisitions. The guests break down why prior mobile waves fizzled out, and Copeland guides the summary.2:36–6:25 · The host pushing back 3/10 AOL's Ad Tech, Cross-Device Tracking, and Video Ecosystem The host interventions are mostly conversational prompts, but Copeland briefly interrupts Frank Chen to clarify what 'crowdsourced' means in the context of studio production and later mentions Google Fi. The guests educate the host on cross-device ad tracking, user data, and AOL's video studio infrastructure.6:25–9:07 · The host pushing back 1/10 Net Neutrality, Zero Rating, and Regulatory Considerations The host stays passive while Chris Dixon explains zero-rating regulatory workarounds and Frank Chen provides a historical masterclass on RCA's vertical integration. The tone remains highly collaborative and educational without pushback.9:07–12:32 · The host pushing back 2/10 Ad Tech Acquisition Waves and Future Market Trends Copeland demonstrates preparation and expertise by citing Chris Dixon's tweet detailing the four historical waves of ad tech acquisitions. The guests break down why prior mobile waves fizzled out, and Copeland guides the summary.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 11:25 Dismissing past mobile ad tech hype

Chris Dixon and Frank Chen reject the common narrative that the prior mobile ad tech wave was a success, explicitly calling it a false start that fizzled out.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 3:54 Challenging the crowdsourcing framing

Host Michael Copeland interrupts Frank Chen to challenge his definition of crowdsourcing, asking whether ideas are merely crowd-validated rather than actually crowd-created.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 7:53 RCA Victor historical parallel

Frank Chen reframes the notion of modern tech companies jumping swim lanes by walking through the historical example of RCA Victor controlling funding, manufacturing, distribution, and content.

 The host holds their own ▶ 9:07 Citing Dixon's four ad tech waves

Michael Copeland shows strong subject familiarity and preparation by quoting Chris Dixon's specific tweet regarding the progression of ad tech M&A waves.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
AOL's Ad Tech, Cross-Device Tracking, and Video Ecosystem 3413 The host interventions are mostly conversational prompts, but Copeland briefly interrupts Frank Chen to clarify what 'crowdsourced' means in the context of studio production and later mentions Google Fi. The guests educate the host on cross-device ad tracking, user data, and AOL's video studio infrastructure.
Net Neutrality, Zero Rating, and Regulatory Considerations 1511 The host stays passive while Chris Dixon explains zero-rating regulatory workarounds and Frank Chen provides a historical masterclass on RCA's vertical integration. The tone remains highly collaborative and educational without pushback.
Ad Tech Acquisition Waves and Future Market Trends 5312 Copeland demonstrates preparation and expertise by citing Chris Dixon's tweet detailing the four historical waves of ad tech acquisitions. The guests break down why prior mobile waves fizzled out, and Copeland guides the summary.

Statements from this episode (11)

Opinion
Dixon: Mobile drove almost all tech M&A over the last five years
“I think the, you know, the short answer to probably every tech M&A you see anywhere for the last five years is mobile.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:29
Prediction Partly held up
Chris Dixon: Television and sports programming will unbundle and move to mobile
“Video, you know, TV is going to move to the mobile phone. HBO has already gone unbundled. Sports is going to go unbundled.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:30
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frank Chen: Most future video content will be crowdsourced
“What we're moving towards is a world in which most of the video content will get crowdsourced, right?”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:39
Insight
Chris Dixon: Tech platforms and telecom carriers are entering total war
“It's now kind of just total war where everyone is fighting everyone, you know, Google and Facebook are building internet access and Verizon is getting into content and they're getting into TV and they're just, you know, so there's no, You know, in some ways, a…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:15
Assertion Supported
Frank Chen: Carriers know your home zip code from phone sleep locations
“Controlling the smartphones, you know exactly who your users are, where they go to sleep, which means that wherever your cell phone went to sleep is probably where you live. So they know the zip code of where you live. So they do know a lot of things about you…”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:58
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dixon: AOL is the largest acquisition Verizon can make without regulatory oversight
“If you go a lot bigger than AOL, or, you know, at some point, like, this is probably the biggest company you can buy and not have major regulatory oversight”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:31
Opinion
Chris Dixon: Zero-rating data is a flagrant violation of net neutrality
“Zero rating it's called, which is which is a flagrant violation of net neutrality.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:52
Insight
Chris Dixon: Tech strategy shifted from Microsoft's horizontal model to Apple's vertical
“I think there used to be the more, I think in the business theory world, A stronger belief in kind of core competency. And that people, you know, it was sort of the, it was the Microsoft model as opposed to the Apple model, right? It was like, let me do one th…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:40
Insight
Chris Dixon: Ad tech startups must sell quickly during M&A consolidation waves
“My advice was always, when that happens, you gotta, like, It's like musical chairs. And if you don't get a seat, you know, you're probably screwed because now these guys are all part of, you now have your direct competitor is now part of Google and part of Fac…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:29
Insight
Chris Dixon: Large incumbents largely ignore the venture capital world
“The way big companies operate, they kind of ignore our VC world. Like we think we're, you know, we get all this, we think we know we're important in the center of the world. And in fact, most people don't really care. And the big companies really don't care. A…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:27
Assertion Supported
Chris Dixon: Early mobile ad tech failed because paid apps dominated monetization
“The mobile ad, the prior mobile ad wave was predicated on the notion that ads would become a dominant monetization model on mobile, which they actually haven't really. It's been more paid. And so that was sort of in some ways a false start, I think.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:42
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