Jan 2, 2019 · 18m · a16z

a16z Podcast | It's Complicated

Sam Arbesman · 6m spoken Frank Chen · 4m spoken Steven Sinofsky · 4m spoken Sonal Chokshi · 2m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
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In this a16z podcast episode, host Sonal Chokshi and tech experts Steven Sinofsky, Frank Chen, and Sam Arbesman explore how modern software systems have grown so complex that they behave like biological organisms, requiring a shift toward technological humility and probabilistic thinking.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 14.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 6.3 Guest teaching 4.8 Guest disagreement 1.0 The host pushing back 4.5
05100:0010:000:48–5:32 · The host as informed peer 6/10 How Do Phones and Systems Work? Steven tests guest Sam with a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, causing Sam to stumble and admit ignorance. Frank and Steven show strong expertise by explaining how technical depth is evaluated across technological stacks.5:32–9:28 · The host as informed peer 7/10 The Biological Nature of Enterprise Software Systems Frank and Steven detail change review boards, deep learning, and customer support realities. Steven directly challenges Sam's book advice advising software users not to panic, forcing Sam to concede his advice was more theoretical than practical.9:28–12:31 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Biological Mindset Versus Physics Mindset in Engineering Sam leads the discussion by defining the distinction between a physics mindset and a biological mindset in engineering. He educates the panel on how tools like Netflix's Chaos Monkey mimic biological gene knockout experiments.12:31–17:31 · The host as informed peer 8/10 Data Center Evolution: From Wall Street to Netflix Frank and Steven showcase deep industry experience by tracing data center history from Wall Street banks to modern microservices. Steven pushes on user intolerance for failure in physical systems while illustrating how Google pioneered continuous failure architecture.0:48–5:32 · Guest teaching 5/10 How Do Phones and Systems Work? Steven tests guest Sam with a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, causing Sam to stumble and admit ignorance. Frank and Steven show strong expertise by explaining how technical depth is evaluated across technological stacks.5:32–9:28 · Guest teaching 5/10 The Biological Nature of Enterprise Software Systems Frank and Steven detail change review boards, deep learning, and customer support realities. Steven directly challenges Sam's book advice advising software users not to panic, forcing Sam to concede his advice was more theoretical than practical.9:28–12:31 · Guest teaching 6/10 Biological Mindset Versus Physics Mindset in Engineering Sam leads the discussion by defining the distinction between a physics mindset and a biological mindset in engineering. He educates the panel on how tools like Netflix's Chaos Monkey mimic biological gene knockout experiments.12:31–17:31 · Guest teaching 3/10 Data Center Evolution: From Wall Street to Netflix Frank and Steven showcase deep industry experience by tracing data center history from Wall Street banks to modern microservices. Steven pushes on user intolerance for failure in physical systems while illustrating how Google pioneered continuous failure architecture.0:48–5:32 · Guest disagreement 1/10 How Do Phones and Systems Work? Steven tests guest Sam with a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, causing Sam to stumble and admit ignorance. Frank and Steven show strong expertise by explaining how technical depth is evaluated across technological stacks.5:32–9:28 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Biological Nature of Enterprise Software Systems Frank and Steven detail change review boards, deep learning, and customer support realities. Steven directly challenges Sam's book advice advising software users not to panic, forcing Sam to concede his advice was more theoretical than practical.9:28–12:31 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Biological Mindset Versus Physics Mindset in Engineering Sam leads the discussion by defining the distinction between a physics mindset and a biological mindset in engineering. He educates the panel on how tools like Netflix's Chaos Monkey mimic biological gene knockout experiments.12:31–17:31 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Data Center Evolution: From Wall Street to Netflix Frank and Steven showcase deep industry experience by tracing data center history from Wall Street banks to modern microservices. Steven pushes on user intolerance for failure in physical systems while illustrating how Google pioneered continuous failure architecture.0:48–5:32 · The host pushing back 4/10 How Do Phones and Systems Work? Steven tests guest Sam with a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, causing Sam to stumble and admit ignorance. Frank and Steven show strong expertise by explaining how technical depth is evaluated across technological stacks.5:32–9:28 · The host pushing back 7/10 The Biological Nature of Enterprise Software Systems Frank and Steven detail change review boards, deep learning, and customer support realities. Steven directly challenges Sam's book advice advising software users not to panic, forcing Sam to concede his advice was more theoretical than practical.9:28–12:31 · The host pushing back 2/10 Biological Mindset Versus Physics Mindset in Engineering Sam leads the discussion by defining the distinction between a physics mindset and a biological mindset in engineering. He educates the panel on how tools like Netflix's Chaos Monkey mimic biological gene knockout experiments.12:31–17:31 · The host pushing back 5/10 Data Center Evolution: From Wall Street to Netflix Frank and Steven showcase deep industry experience by tracing data center history from Wall Street banks to modern microservices. Steven pushes on user intolerance for failure in physical systems while illustrating how Google pioneered continuous failure architecture.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 37.6% · guest 62.4%0:00 · the host 37.6% · guest 62.4%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 16% · guest 84%6:00 · the host 16% · guest 84%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 27.4% · guest 72.6%15:00 · the host 27.4% · guest 72.6%18:00 · the host 42.2% · guest 57.8%18:00 · the host 42.2% · guest 57.8%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 11:10 Sam clarifies physics versus biology dichotomy

In a mild counter-framing, Sam resists oversimplifying his own metaphor, pointing out that physicists often deal in granular details while biologists construct grand theories.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 7:59 Steven calls out impractical book advice

Steven directly rejects Sam's book excerpt telling users 'don't panic' when software fails, pointing to his own real-world experience on Microsoft support calls.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:28 Sam explains biological testing models in software

Sam educates the hosts on how modern resilience engineering tools like Chaos Monkey directly parallel biological research on gene knockout mutations in bacteria.

The host holds their own ▶ 14:05 Steven displays insider engineering history

Steven demonstrates primary industry expertise by describing early video streaming disk-swapping constraints and Google's architectural shift toward assuming constant hardware failure.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
How Do Phones and Systems Work? 6514 Steven tests guest Sam with a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, causing Sam to stumble and admit ignorance. Frank and Steven show strong expertise by explaining how technical depth is evaluated across technological stacks.
The Biological Nature of Enterprise Software Systems 7517 Frank and Steven detail change review boards, deep learning, and customer support realities. Steven directly challenges Sam's book advice advising software users not to panic, forcing Sam to concede his advice was more theoretical than practical.
Biological Mindset Versus Physics Mindset in Engineering 4612 Sam leads the discussion by defining the distinction between a physics mindset and a biological mindset in engineering. He educates the panel on how tools like Netflix's Chaos Monkey mimic biological gene knockout experiments.
Data Center Evolution: From Wall Street to Netflix 8315 Frank and Steven showcase deep industry experience by tracing data center history from Wall Street banks to modern microservices. Steven pushes on user intolerance for failure in physical systems while illustrating how Google pioneered continuous failure architecture.

Statements from this episode (10)

Insight
Chen: Technical PM interviews should test depth across the technology stack
“And so what you're looking for, if you're trying to find a technical one is how deep down the stack can you go in answering that question?”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:23
Insight
Arbesman: Iterative hacks on large systems accumulate into impenetrable complexity
“When you have, when you're confronted with a large system, some large technological system, like a piece of software or whatever oftentimes the only way to change it is through those kind of kludges or hacks, because it's this kind of iterative tinkering at th…”
Sam Arbesman Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:29
Insight
Arbesman: Large computing systems evolve like biological organisms, not engineered machines
“At the same time, though, these systems, they're not always Fully engineered. They're almost grown. And when they're evolved, and then like, then you often get the kind of all the terminology from evolution of kind of like evolved feature or repurposing some o…”
Sam Arbesman Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:10
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chen: Niantic likely holds daily cross-department outage reviews for Pokémon GO
“So when you have an outage, right, and I can tell you this is probably happening inside Niantic on a daily basis right now as Pokemon Go explodes in popularity, you have those exact same people convene to try to figure out what is causing it, right?”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:21
Insight
Chen: Deep learning replaces deterministic logic with probabilistic reasoning
“Programming has been functional and procedural, which is I have if loops and else loops, and I tell it, and what I'm trying to do is predict enough state so that the computer can make the right decision. If this, do that. Else do this, right? With the introduc…”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:20
Assertion Supported
Arbesman: Netflix uses Chaos Monkey to randomly disable live production subsystems
“Netflix, they have this chaos monkey suite of tools where the tool will periodically take subsystems out of commission and see how the overall system responds live. It'll just kind of knock out portions of Netflix and see how it responds. And the idea is to lo…”
Sam Arbesman Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:55
Insight
Arbesman: Complex software requires biological thinking over high-level physics equations
“In this biological mindset is the idea that, that the details really matter. It's wonderful if you can write an equation that explains 60% of what's going on, but it turns out the remaining 40% Is really, really important when you're trying to make sure someth…”
Sam Arbesman Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:45
Assertion Supported
Sinofsky: Google pioneered infrastructure design based on continuous hardware failure
“Along comes Google, and they basically pioneered this whole notion that, like, all the disk drives, it's not like they're likely to fail, it's that they will fail. And so it was designing a whole system on the presumption of continuous failure, which was like …”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:14
Assertion Supported
Chen: Systems monitoring is shifting from individual servers to server populations
“And we're in the midst of that transition right now, which is if you look at monitoring tools, they're going from You know, sort of HP OpenView to things like SignalFX, which is you're looking at populations of servers rather than individual servers.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:34
Insight
Sinofsky: You couldn't invent the iPhone in 1950 due to system complexity
“We now build systems that no one understands, and that classic, if I could get a time machine and go back to, like, 1950, I'd invent whatever your favorite product is now, and then you realize you couldn't come up with an iPhone in 1950.”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:14
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