Jan 2, 2019 · 26m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Quantum Computing, Now and Next
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
This episode of the a16z Podcast features host Sonal Chokshi, Chris Dixon, and Rigetti Computing founder Chad Rigetti discussing the transition from classical silicon limitations to quantum computing. They explore core quantum physics mechanics, hybrid software integration, key industrial applications, and how agile startups compete in the global quantum ecosystem.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 3.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 5.3 Guest teaching 5.0 Guest disagreement 1.5 The host pushing back 2.6
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 25:48 Dismissing Cryptography Hype
Chad forcefully rejects popular media framing around quantum encryption breaking, calling it a curse and one of the least interesting applications compared to healthcare and material science.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 23:27 Challenging Startup ViabilityChris refuses to let the guest give a standard pitch, directly challenging how a startup can hope to compete with well-funded incumbents like Google and IBM in deep-tech hardware.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 10:40 Exponential Qubit Power MechanicsChad educates the host on quantum scaling, demonstrating how adding a single qubit doubles total compute capacity compared to diminishing part-per-million gains in classical semiconductor engineering.
The host holds their own ▶ 6:12 Dennard Scaling vs Moore's Law DistinctionChris demonstrates deep domain knowledge by separating physical transistor physics (Dennard scaling) from Moore's Law, reframing the latter as an economic engine of capitalism and capital deployment.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Limits of Classical Computing, Moore's Law, and Amdahl's Law | 7 | 5 | 1 | 5 | Chris displays strong background knowledge on hardware scaling, citing multi-core processors, data center limits, and Amdahl's Law. He pushes back on the idea that Moore's Law is dead by raising counterarguments about specialized ASICs and historical manufacturing breakthroughs. | |
| Economic Paradigms, Hardware Specialization, and Nature's Computing Language | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Chris demonstrates high expertise by distinguishing Dennard scaling from Moore's Law and framing Moore's Law as an economic engine driven by market demand. Chad agrees collaboratively and extends the conversation into quantum mechanics as nature's native computing language. | |
| Core Principles of Quantum Computing: Qubits and Exponential Scaling | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | Chad educates Chris on the fundamental physics of quantum computing, specifically continuous variables and exponential qubit scaling. Chris intervenes constructively to clarify the difference between continuous variables and digital binary. | |
| Practical Applications: Computational Chemistry, Optimization, and Unforeseen Futures | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Chad explains computational chemistry and optimization applications. Chris demonstrates strong technical comprehension by summarizing these into two core classes and offering a historical parallel regarding 1980s mispredictions of personal computer use cases. | |
| The Hybrid Quantum-Classical Paradigm and Software Infrastructure | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Chris introduces a sharp analogy comparing hybrid quantum-classical hardware to CPU/GPU architectures and clarifies the dual usage of qubit as both logical and physical element. Chad provides an educational breakdown of quantum coherence history. | |
| Global Quantum Landscape and Rigetti's Full-Stack Strategy | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Chris asks open-ended landscape and organizational questions. Chad provides an overview of global competitors including IBM, Google, and national efforts, along with Rigetti's full-stack hiring strategy. | |
| The Developer Flywheel and Startup Agility vs. Incumbents | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | Chris presses Chad with a direct strategic challenge regarding how a startup can realistically compete against tech giants like IBM and Google. Chad defends his model using a Tesla vs. GM analogy and argues that foundational knowledge outweighs raw capital scale. | |
| Quantum Cryptography Realities vs. High-Impact Applications | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Chris asks about the common internet fear regarding quantum computing breaking RSA encryption. Chad reframes the premise, correcting the timeline to 20-30 years away and dismissing codebreaking as one of the least interesting applications. |
Statements from this episode (15)
Rigetti: 10nm Semiconductor Fabs Cost Tens of Billions
“The cost of building the manufacturing infrastructure, the cost of putting up a fab, To build technology at the 10 nanometer, 20 nanometer scale is, is extremely large. We're talking tens of billions of dollars now to get to the latest generation of technology…”
Chris Dixon: Moore's Law is fundamentally an economic principle
“Whereas Moore's Law, really, the spirit of Moore's Law is an economic principle. Which is when the computing industry really cares about something, and the economic engine gets going, things tend to get better very quickly.”
Rigetti: $10M in quantum chip infrastructure rivals $4B classical supercomputers
“There's effectively sort of Cambrian explosion happening because companies can, you know, invest ten million dollars in manufacturing infrastructure and build individual chips that are close to rivaling the capacity of an entire supercomputer. And that superco…”
Chad Rigetti: Neuromorphic chips will soon be in mobile handsets
“We're talking about neuromorphic chips in individual handsets being available soon for machine learning.”
Rigetti: Adding a single qubit doubles a quantum computer's performance
“And with a quantum computer, if you have a hundred qubits and you add one more, you don't have a one percent performance increase, you double the performance. And that persists independent of the memory size. So every quantum bit you add to the system doubles,…”
Rigetti: Quantum devices will perform calculations classical supercomputers never can
“And what it means is what appear to be rudimentary quantum mechanical devices can encode a tremendous amount of information and can be used to compute things that are physically impossible to compute, not only with today's supercomputers, but with any foreseea…”
Rigetti: Classical supercomputers cannot simulate the exact structure of 50-atom molecules
“A small molecule with something like 50 atoms is, is, is almost impossible to compute the exact molecular structure, or the exact electronic structure.”
Rigetti: Algorithmic understanding will become quantum computing's primary bottleneck
“And over the next few years, the quantum hardware that we're building is getting better at such a fast rate that we're reaching this point where the bottleneck is going to be understanding the best algorithms to run on those machines to get the most value out …”
Rigetti: Quantum systems require sophisticated classical computers wrapped around them
“And part of what that implies is that you need to build a very sophisticated Classical computer around the quantum computer to both leverage its resources and to offload anything from that quantum computer that can be offloaded so that the quantum computer is …”
Rigetti: Only one or two groups had demonstrated superconducting qubits during PhD start
“When I started my PhD in I think there's one or two groups in the world that had ever built and demonstrated a superconducting qubit with a measurable coherence time.”
Rigetti: A new 'Silicon Valley' will emerge around the quantum ecosystem
“There's going to be another Silicon Valley where the quantum ecosystem is, it kind of comes up.”
Rigetti: Quantum software engineers will expand significantly within five years
“Over the next five years or so, I think the number of folks who identify as quantum engineers or quantum software engineers is going to go from approximately zero today to a meaningful number, and that the progress on that front will really accelerate.”
Rigetti: Despite incumbent efforts, Tesla is the only electric car company
“General Motors is building an electric car, and still, there's got to be a Tesla, and eventually electric cars and hybrids are going to kind of be a technology that is adopted across the industry, but there's one electric car company. There's one that matters.”
Rigetti: Quantum computers capable of breaking RSA encryption are 20-30 years away
“We're probably 20 to 30 years away from having a machine that would really be able to run Shore's algorithm on Wall Street. On practically relevant problem sizes. At some point in the future, quantum computers will be able to crack RSA encryption.”