Feb 26, 2019 · 48m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, host Sonal Chokshi and Applied Intuition co-founders Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig explore the technical, economic, and industrial landscape of autonomous vehicles, drawing parallels to the mobile smartphone revolution while highlighting the critical role of software simulation and Detroit-Silicon Valley collaboration.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 29.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 5.1 Guest teaching 3.6 Guest disagreement 1.6 The host pushing back 2.3
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 31:08 Guest mocks tech broad pontification
Qasar calls out Silicon Valley commentators for arrogantly opining on traditional industries like hardware and manufacturing far outside their narrow circle of competence.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 9:00 Host challenges orthogonal verticals taxonomySonal directly rejects Qasar's classification of autonomous shuttles, trucks, and taxis as orthogonal verticals, arguing they share the same underlying automation tech.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 27:01 Guest educates host on GM history and Alfred P. SloanWhen Sonal expresses complete unfamiliarity with auto pioneer Alfred P. Sloan, Qasar takes her through the history of General Motors, Kettering, and William Durant.
The host holds their own ▶ 4:36 Host connects Dixon's toy concept to Clay ChristensenSonal demonstrates sharp domain authority by immediately connecting Chris Dixon's observation about toys to Clay Christensen's foundational disruption theory.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hype Cycles and the Mobile Analogy | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Sonal demonstrates strong intellectual expertise by citing Chris Anderson's 'peace dividends of the smartphone wars' and connecting Chris Dixon's toy dictum to Clay Christensen's disruption theory. | |
| Defining the 'iPhone Moment' for Autonomous Vehicles | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Qasar reframes the host's question about an 'iPhone moment' by arguing the real moment was the maturation of the app layer rather than the initial hardware reveal. | |
| Orthogonal Verticals of Autonomous Mobility | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6 | Sonal directly pushes back on Qasar's assertion that AV verticals are orthogonal. Peter then thoroughly schools the host on the technical nuances of autonomy levels 0 through 5. | |
| Software Tooling and Scenario Simulation | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | Sonal questions where the mobile analogy breaks down and references Frank Chen's research as well as her own Wired op-ed on future infrastructure predictions. | |
| Mapping the AV Ecosystem and the Software Car | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Qasar categorizes the player ecosystem into consumer brands, software services, and Tier 1 infrastructure suppliers, while Sonal contributes a personal hybrid vehicle story. | |
| Infrastructure vs. Simulation and 'Reality in the Loop' | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Sonal invokes computer scientist David Gelernter's 'Mirror Worlds' concept to explain the transition from hardware testing to virtual software simulation. | |
| Build vs. Buy and the 'AWS Moment' for Autonomy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Sonal synthesizes the unbundling of AV development as the 'AWS moment' for autonomy, while Qasar explains how modular supplier ecosystems drive market efficiency. | |
| Historical Lessons from Detroit and the Circle of Competence | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | When Sonal admits she does not know who Alfred P. Sloan is, Qasar provides a history lesson on General Motors, Kettering, and Henry Ford's vertical integration. | |
| Bridging Silicon Valley Software with Detroit Manufacturing | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Qasar gently mocks tech commentators who pontificate on podcasts outside their circle of competence, which Sonal acknowledges as both arrogant and charming. | |
| Geopolitics, National Interest, and Economic Concentration | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | A collaborative exchange where Qasar discusses national interest and wealth concentration, while both host and guest share stories of childhood origins in developing rural regions. | |
| Regulatory Arbitrage and Policy Guardrails | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Sonal cites Marc Andreessen's Politico op-ed regarding regulatory arbitrage across states, prompting Qasar to detail federalism, policy guardrails, and VW scandal consequences. | |
| Technological Abundance and Limits of Simulation | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Sonal frames modern simulation as a shift from computational scarcity to abundance, while Peter outlines the practical limits of simulation versus real-world testing. | |
| Ecosystem Differentiation, Data, and Network Effects | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Qasar explores the long-term commoditization of AV software modules and cites the physics text 'The Five Ages of the Universe', which Sonal enthusiastically accepts. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Younis: Autonomous vehicles in 2019 mirror mobile technology in 2005
“And I think the, probably a good analogy to think about where we are specifically is, that I like to use is, where mobile was in kind of roughly 2005. What we consider to be the modern smartphone isn't really there.”
Younis: Autonomous technology could become a commodity by 2029
“So if we look back at 2017, the autonomy doesn't look that much different, the players are generally the same, but I think 10 years from now, autonomy will be very, very different, insofar as it might even be a commodity.”
Ludwig: Automotive sensor commodification for autonomy is just beginning
“And today we're just at the beginning of that for automotive sensors and autonomy.”
Younis: Platform tipping points occur when breakout consumer apps emerge
“The iPhone moment in my mind is when you have you know, frankly, the 12 or 24 month period where Instagram, Snapchat, Uber, and WhatsApp are all some and they all are created in a roughly pretty tight time bound. That's the iPhone moment in my mind.”
Younis: Autonomy's tipping point requires non-Silicon Valley user adoption
“So what the general public though will consider the autonomy moment is when you meet somebody who doesn't live in Silicon Valley, doesn't work in technology, and they've done, they've had an autonomous ride. Maybe it's on college campuses, maybe it's an airpor…”
Younis: Everything that moves will eventually become autonomous
“The adage that anything that moves will one day be autonomous. We believe that very, very deeply.”
Ludwig: John Deere has run semi-autonomous harvesters for over a decade
“John Deere has had a production semi-autonomous tractor trailer system for harvesting crops for more than a decade.”
Ludwig: Campus delivery robots qualify as Level 4 autonomous systems
“That's absolutely a level four system. Because for those there's no human operator typically. And so it is a level four system within the ODD of the robot.”
Ludwig: No autonomous vehicle company is close to Level 5 autonomy
“And then the very last level is level five, which is more of an idea than a reality. It's the notion that there could be a vehicle that is, is able to drive autonomously in, in all conditions where a human would be able to operate that vehicle. And the truth i…”
Younis: Level 2 and Level 4 AV development should share identical tooling
“We fundamentally believe that the tools that you're using to develop your level two systems should be actually the same tools that you use for three and four”
Younis: Legacy Level 2 AV simulation literally pointed cameras at monitors
“Historically the tooling for level two systems, what Peter mentioned earlier, LCC and ACC Lane Keep and Adaptive Cruise Control, those were more hardware-focused tools, and so they would, the quote-unquote simulators were trying to spoof the hardware that is a…”
Younis: Bosch became relevant in Silicon Valley due to autonomous vehicles
“When I worked at Bosch before, Bosch was unknown just a few years ago, and it's finally now, because of autonomy, Bosch is like a relevant name.”
Ludwig: Electric drivetrains impact every vehicle component, not just propulsion
“And so electric drive train, for example, that doesn't just impact the propulsion system, but it actually impacts every other component on the vehicle.”
Younis: Modern simulation builds software products, whereas past simulation built hardware
“What's different about simulation in the past versus simulation today is simulation in the past was usually used to build hardware products, and we're using simulation to build a software product.”
Ludwig: AV simulation is continuous infrastructure, not a one-off hardware test
“It's also infrastructure in the sense that it's used continuously on an ongoing basis. Whereas the traditional forms of simulation were typically used sort of for this big bang moment, which is the, it's the creation of this final hardware specification, which…”
Younis: AV developers should buy non-differentiated components off the shelf
“My rough view, and I would say largely what is not Differentiated between the companies, the mapping companies included, you should basically buy off the shelf.”
Younis: Today's AV market directly mirrors early automotive industry dynamics
“The amazing thing about the AV industry today is it's almost copy and paste of the automotive industry a hundred years ago, because you have these individual personalities who are shaping companies in their own way. Some get Fire to start competing companies. …”
Younis: Sophisticated AV leaders keep their focus strictly on core algorithms
“One of the easy rules of thumbs of you can see how sophisticated an AV leadership is just asking them, where's that line? And that line, that circle of competence should be as small as possible. That small circle in autonomy is algorithms. That's the coveted g…”
Younis: AVs require combining Silicon Valley software with traditional car manufacturing
“I think there's no path to autonomy that doesn't go through Silicon Valley and Detroit.”
Younis: Silicon Valley companies stray outside their competence attempting hardware manufacturing
“Where Silicon Valley, I think, strays is when we start doing things which, frankly speaking, are outside this very small circle of software, and I get a little nervous when, you know, companies are doing a lot of hardware because there are other hardware cente…”
Younis: The autonomy software stack will remain in Silicon Valley long-term
“So I think the autonomy software stack will probably for a long time be in, in, in Silicon Valley.”
Younis: Foreign governments will protect domestic automakers from Waymo dominance
“The German government won't just let Waymo come take over Germany and let Daimler and BMW go under business, and the same thing is true for Hyundai in Korea, Honda and Toyota in Japan, and the Chinese companies, because there's a recognition that if all of the…”
Younis: No complex physical systems are developed without software simulation
“There are no complex systems that are being developed without simulation aircraft military systems, automotive internal combustion engines, microprocessors, simulation is everywhere.”
Younis: Independent providers will outperform vertical integration in autonomous vehicles
“And so I think with autonomy, I think the arc here, you, you'll see all these individual modules will be run by individual players because there is this natural arc in capitalism, which says the independent providers can do cheaper, better, and faster than any…”