Dec 19, 2025 · 45m · a16z
How AI Will Transform Fintech In 2026
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The a16z Show, host Erik Torenberg, Plaid CEO Zach Perret Perret, and a16z General Partner David Haber Haber analyze the macroeconomic evolution of fintech from the 2020 venture boom to the 2022 washout and current rebound. They discuss how artificial intelligence is reshaping financial services through B2B labor replacement, agentic interfaces, and an escalating battle against AI-driven financial fraud.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 7.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.1 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 0.7 The host pushing back 0.1
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 19:35 Euphoria pushback
Zach playfully interrupts David to reject the premise that there was too much euphoria during the 2021 venture boom.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 10:40 Challenging crypto's identityErik directly challenges the narrative around crypto being a new internet, asking if it is really just a subset of standard fintech.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 27:52 AI fraud breakdownZach educates the host on how the primary commercial application of AI in fintech today is actually automated financial fraud.
The host holds their own ▶ 10:40 Reframing crypto vs fintechErik cuts through industry buzzwords by probing whether crypto has effectively collapsed into core fintech.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host Welcome and Setting the Episode's Context | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Erik sets the episode's context by asking guests to summarize changes in fintech since 2018. Zach and David detail the boom and bust cycle, sharing striking stats about VC funding shifts. | |
| From Startups to Mainstream Infrastructure and AI Horizons | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Zach explains how fintech evolved from solving basic digital access to tackling underlying infrastructure challenges like credit scoring and AI agent integration. | |
| Crypto's Role in Core Fintech and Incumbent System Integration | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Erik questions whether crypto is fundamentally just a subset of fintech rather than a new internet paradigm. Zach reframes consumer speculation habits while David addresses incumbent adoption. | |
| Plaid's Foundational Role and the Incumbent Tech Transformation | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | David praises Plaid's role as foundational infrastructure and contrasts incumbent legacy choices like Goldman Sachs building its own internal email client with modern tech adoption. | |
| Lessons from the VC Boom, Washout, and Resilient Winners | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | Erik asks what caused the VC allocation drop after 2021. Zach playfully interrupts David to defend the period's valuation euphoria before both analyze market consolidation. | |
| The Shift to B2B Financial Software and AI Labor Replacement | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Zach expresses skepticism about consumer enthusiasm for self-driving money apps due to trust issues, while David outlines B2B AI opportunities replacing manual enterprise labor. | |
| Predictions for 2026: The AI Financial Fraud Threat | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Zach outlines his prediction that AI-driven financial fraud will accelerate rapidly, citing pig butchering scams and automated threat vectors. | |
| Plaid's Internal Eras, the $5B Visa Deal, and Refounding Moments | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Zach reflects on Plaid's operational history, including the canceled $5B Visa acquisition due to DOJ scrutiny and pandemic contract clauses. | |
| 2026 Outlook: Early Spring, B2B AI Adoption, and Plaid's Next Wave | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | The guests summarize the near-term outlook for B2B AI adoption and Plaid's growth plans. The segment concludes with light banter teasing Erik about podcast frequency. |
Statements from this episode (19)
Perret: Venture funding for fintech dropped to near zero in late 2022
“Starting in like the second half of 2022, like basically zero percent of venture dollars went into fintech.”
Haber: 25% of venture capital went to fintech during COVID boom
“Like 25% of all venture dollars in that period went into fintech.”
Haber: High interest rates drive deposit revenue for Robinhood and Mercury
“Robinhood, Mercury, many of these companies are generating very significant percentages of their revenue and profits today from deposit flows as rates have gone up.”
Perret: The fintech industry has largely solved digital financial access
“Not completely, not in every little niche, but for the most part, we as a collective industry have solved the access problem.”
Perret: AI agents will be the primary mortgage application method by 2027
“And there are a few interesting use cases, but you know, fast forward two years and the way that you get a mortgage is going to be talking to your AI application.”
Perret: Traditional banking and crypto will converge around USDC checking accounts
“I suspect that there will be a convergence of One side of crypto and core financial services be that exchanging you know, like checking accounts with dollars in them for checking accounts with USDC in them, wallets with USDC in them or similar.”
Haber: Goldman Sachs built and operated its own proprietary email software
“Goldman had literally created their own email client. Like they didn't operate on Outlook or on Gmail. They had this thing called Orbit.”
Haber: Large financial institutions are adopting AI developer tools like Cursor
“Many of these institutions are beginning to adopt products like Cursor or, you know, even GitHub Copilot or a broader ecosystem of kind of AI products in their employee base, and people are seeing the productivity gains.”
Perret: Surviving neobanks were forced to expand into lending and investments
“If you started off with a neobank and all they did was have a checking account and a savings account and maybe a card well, in this period, if they wanted to survive, they needed to build the lending side of their offering. And so you know, they expanded there…”
Haber: a16z has slowed its consumer fintech investments in recent years
“I mean, I would say from our vantage point, we haven't made as many consumer fintech investments in recent years as we have historically.”
Perret: Plaid will build tools for consumer AI data linking
“Our job as it relates to AI is like, let's build tools that allow consumers safely to link their data with agents. Then let's build tools that allow those agents to take the proper actions, be that just analyzing data or be that actually moving money or someth…”
Haber: Building a bond ladder at JPMorgan remains a manual process
“If you're a wealth management client of JP Morgan today, you know, building a bond ladder is still a manual process. You're picking, you know, individual securities one by one.”
Haber: AI software expands TAM by targeting labor budgets instead of IT
“You know, that is a really interesting opportunity for the moment, you know, in large part because it's unlocking markets that were never particularly interesting to software into because IT budgets were small and now, you know, the TAM is largely labor.”
Perret: Financial fraud is currently the largest practical use case for AI
“It turns out the biggest use case for AI is fraudsters committing fraud against financial services companies.”
Perret: Financial fraud is growing at 18% to 20% annually
“Financial fraud is growing at like, 18 to 20% a year which is insane, and it's already a huge market.”
Perret: AI has replaced human call centers in pig butchering scams
“That used to be done based on these, like human factories in, like, Malaysia, where they would, like, have these people, like, locked in rooms sending text messages to unassuming people in the U.S. Mostly, but around the world. Now that's all AI. You don't nee…”
Perret: Plaid's 2020 acquisition agreement with Visa was fixed at over $5B
“We have this deal to sell the company for just over five billion dollars and it's a fixed price.”
Perret: Visa's Plaid contract explicitly excluded global pandemics from MAC clauses
“And then we looked at through the docs and like they have these things called like material adverse event. So you can get out of a deal if something crazy happens. And there was a provision there that says you cannot get out of the deal, even in the case of a …”