The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kolter: Training custom AI models from scratch will become economically unviable
“Companies that are right now thinking about training their own models and things like this, and it's just sort of the default that of course you would do this, that this must, won't be an economically viable thing to do. In the future, and so it won't happen a…”
Kolter predicts AGI will arrive within 4 to 50 years
“And I am massively uncertain as to when this will happen, but a massive shift that I've undergone is I think this will probably happen in my lifetime. I think the answer to AGI has always been in academia, not in my lifetime. And the timeframe I give this righ…”
Kolter: Winning companies will leverage workforce with AI, not fire them
“The winners in this new world Will the companies that say survive and thrive and become dominant in this new world? Not talking about the AI companies for now, talking about sort of the rest of the companies that the ones that people worry that they're going t…”
Kolter: Video will soon cease to be trusted as objective evidence
“Video is a short blip where we sort of think that there's some objective evidence for a hundred years of our history, and that's going to be now, that's no longer true pretty soon.”
Kolter: AI models will eventually reach capabilities that make open-sourcing unsafe
“I think there will come a time when a certain capability, a certain ability of these models Reaches the point that should give us pause when it comes to just turning these things over to whoever and what, however, they want to use them.”
Kolter: AI will accelerate trust erosion until people believe nothing they see
“The real negative outcome is that people are not going to believe anything that they see. It didn't even need AI to get there, but AI is absolutely an accelerant for this process.”
Kolter: AI foundation model landscape will likely undergo market consolidation
“And I think there will be most likely consolidation, but I'm not quite sure how it will play out.”
Kolter: RAG systems will remain essential despite fine-tuning advances
“RAG based systems are so Are so common here, and so, and probably will remain, even with the advent of fine-tuning availability, they're going to remain a useful paradigm.”
Kolter: Enterprise cloud LLM adoption will mimic cloud storage migration
“This is not in certain use cases, any riskier than just having your data in the cloud to begin with, which all of them typically do. They've all moved that way. So I think this will just happen naturally with progression of time.”