The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kolter: AI model architectures and Transformers no longer matter
“I, for a lot of my career, was thinking that model architectures really mattered, and by having clever, complex architectures and sub-modules inside architectures, you would have, that was the route to sort of better AI systems. For the most part, I don't beli…”
Kolter: Machine learning algorithms fail to extract maximum data value
“What that means is our current algorithms, we are not yet maximally extracting the information from data we have. And there are way more deductions and inferences and other processes that we can apply to our current data to provide more value.”
Kolter defines AGI as equivalent to a year-long human collaborator
“I define AGI as a system that acts functionally equivalent to a close collaborator of yours over the course of about a year long project.”
Kolter: Detailed AI regulations become outdated within months
“A lot of the details about how those regulations sometimes evolve can be a bit misguided or miss the point or somehow Just when I read them, basically they're going to become dated in, in a matter of months, because they're dealing with things and they're appr…”
Kolter: Existing laws with minor tweaks can regulate downstream AI harms
“We have a much better handle on regulating the downstream uses of AI. Like, when it comes to misinformation, we already have laws that deal with sort of libel and things like this. In many cases, because AI is acting as an accelerator, there are situations in …”
Kolter: Modern AI progress comes from uncurated web data over manual labeling
“Kind of on the contrary, I thought that data was sort of, you know, data had to be highly curated to be valuable, and the value in data came essentially from very manual labeling of this data and human intensive curation. The big amazing insight Of current AI …”
Kolter: Small models become valuable when specialized for repeated tasks
“Once you have a task, a rote task that you're repeating again and again enough times, And you know a small model can do it. It probably does become valuable to specialize a small model for that task only.”
Kolter: AI's primary risk is lowering skill barriers for malicious actors
“The concern is that not that they can do this sort of autonomously, maybe initially, but that they can lower the bar so far in the skill level required to create these things that effectively it puts them in the hands of a huge number of bad actors.”
Kolter: AI safety is a necessary condition for using AI
“I want to develop and improve safety of these tools Because I want to use them. It's not that we have some moral imperative that we have to develop these tools. I mean, maybe there are, or we have to develop AI and AGI. Maybe that's true. But that's not what m…”
Kolter: AI safety requires global collaboration rather than national competition
“I think there are certain things like, for example, AI safety, where we very much need to work as a world to help set standards and help better the future of everyone here. Because yes, certain things can be done by countries. Capabilities can maybe advance mo…”