The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Weinberg: Venture fund returns are dropping to 1.5x to 2x
“You're seeing fund returns come down. You're not seeing five X, six X funds. You're seeing one and a half X, two X funds, and some that are probably even one X funds where you pile in and something goes really wrong.”
Weinberg: For every seed win with a markup, three or four fail
“Because for every one of those checks that you write that gets there, there's like three or four that don't. And it's got to pay for the ones that don't get there. And that's the venture math, right? Your winners have to win big and they have to pay for all th…”
Weinberg: Operator Partners almost never sells equity in secondary transactions
“So to be clear, we won't sell. It's just sometimes we may not buy. The prorata. But we're basically never selling in a secondary.”
Weinberg: Multi-stage seed strategy will only work for top-tier funds
“And my guess, and I haven't modeled this, but my guess is, as with all of these things, there will be a subset of these funds where it works. Because they catch the five companies that they can continue to plow money into and end up putting five hundred millio…”