why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coelius: VCs who cut my pro-rata will never see my deals again
“I've seen a number of funds who basically have come in and wiped out my pro rata or my follow-on, and those funds will never see another deal from me if I can help it.”
Prediction Held up
Coelius: Mega VC firms are taking platform bundling to a higher level
“If you look at what Andreessen is doing and you look at what the number of the other big platforms are doing, they're taking venture to a whole even higher level of bundling where they're saying, look, we're going to basically use the sort of returns that come…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coelius: Tier-1 VCs entering seed will fail if they avoid the work
“If they do the work, they're going to be great. And if they don't do the work, they're going to fail.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coelius: Individual allocators outperform committees across almost every asset class
“In almost every single other asset class, individual decision makers have proven to be the most effective way of basically deploying capital.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coelius projects a one-third failure rate for his venture portfolio
“My assumption is, is that we'll probably have about a third of our portfolio will be losers.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Coelius: Triggit grew from $1M to $30M in revenue in 12 months
“For my company, Trigger, it was like, we basically went from being a very broad sort of demand-side platform, and all those things we could do, to like, hey, we give you retargeting on Facebook. And the moment we did that, suddenly, Walmart, Best Buy, HomeDevo…”