The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Quist: Only 5% of venture capital funds classic early-stage venture bets
“Five percent of the industry or the capital of the industry, I think is really seeking out classic venture bets and the rest of it is piling on into growth”
Quist: Mid-sized VC funds will struggle to find alpha by 2027
“I think the pie gets bigger. But unfortunately it subsists less people. Goldman and Morgan are much more profitable than a lot of other investment banks. And so I think you'll see firms that have picked a quadrant and set up their organization and strategy wor…”
Quist: Accumulating top companies beats holding a diversified venture portfolio
“You're almost always better off accumulating stock in those companies over the first eight years of their life than you are in any diversified venture portfolio.”
Quist: Tiger Global will retrench and deploy less private capital annually
“I think they retrench probably at slightly smaller scale on the private side, the public book. I don't know. There aren't a lot of firm, not a lot of public books that have recovered from being down that far. But they're kind of an unprecedented institution in…”
Quist: Effective TAM analysis focuses on past spending on inefficient solutions
“I think a lot of TAM analyses, like, starts off on the wrong foot. I like to ask, and I think the question you want to have about marketizing is, most products are built to solve a problem. Most problems are solved, but inefficiently. And so the question I hav…”
Quist: Underwriting startups with multiple novel theories is exponentially riskier
“Being novel, having a novel theory and being correct, having one of them in your life is a low odds proposition. There just aren't that many. Having two isn't linear risk or the odds of being right on two vectors is exponentially lower. And I think that there'…”
Quist: Slow Ventures passed on leading Deel's seed round over valuation
“We were negotiating to be the lead of the seed, and I literally were like this far apart and decided that was too far apart.”
Quist: Venture capital exists to fund testable high-upside experiments
“I fundamentally believe the point of venture capital, right, is to allow a founder to run an experiment against a hypothesis that is knowable, testable, right? Where a true answer dramatically changes the enterprise value of the company.”
Quist: Venture capital follows the evolutionary path of private equity
“When I look at whether it's investment banking, mutual funds, hedge funds, private equity, and now venture, they've all followed a very similar curve where early on in the assets class lifestyle or business model lifestyle, it's really subscale and it's volati…”
Quist: Slow Ventures avoids consensus seed deals to back non-consensus ideas
“I think we would say we concede the consensus game at the earliest stages. We think our job is to go a click out further on a belief system than in other people.”
Quist: All competitive startup moats eventually erode over time
“I think as soon as you begin talking about a product, there's only a few ways people have ever created defensibility. And I know it all erodes. There's no sure thing modes, but there are higher walls than others, right? Around network effects, intellectual pro…”
Quist: Industry Ventures returned 10-12x on LiveRamp's Series B acquisition
“There's a company called LiveRamp that Oren Hoffman founded, that I was lucky enough to lead the Series B. And this was at a time when ad tech related products were kind of written off, right? As hard to differentiate, hard to find novelty, hard to find defens…”