why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: Mercor grew from $1M to $100M revenue in 11 months
“Brex went from like zero to a hundred million dollars in revenue in like in 18 months after launch, and Mercor went from like a million dollars in revenue when I invested to like over a hundred million, like in 11 months.”
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: U.S. is winning the AI race against China by all measures
“I think by all, like, I think by all measures, like the U.S. Is winning. If you look at, like, all the AI products, like, ChatCPT is the most used, ah, AI assistant in the world, and sure, you can talk about, like, oh, how about DeepSeq and this and that, but …”
Assertion Partly supported
Lazarte: LLM usage measured in FLOPS grew 100x over two years
“LLM usage has grown a hundred x in the last two years. So if you measure like in the number of flops, it went from like one extra flop to a hundred extra flops now. And like, of course, this data is not very precise, but it's directionally correct.”
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: Mercor founder Brandon is generating $100M ARR at age 21
“And then in, in the Brandon case, it's like, okay, he's a 21 year old, running a company, doing a hundred million dollars a year. Like, there's very few people that have been in that place, but turns out that Pedro has been in that place, you know, like, early…”
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: US labor market spend is $10T versus $1T software market
“If software spending in the US is like a trillion dollars, but labor spend is like 10 trillion, and now, like, the AI companies are going after the labor spend, and so the outcomes are going to be, like, insanely larger than they were before.”
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: ChatGPT reached nearly one billion monthly users in three years
“Three years ago, like, we didn't have ChatGPT, and now there's, like, close to a billion people that, that use it every month”
Assertion Contradicted
Lazarte: Mobile app downloads grew 42x between 2008 and 2009
“And we saw that app downloads, like, this was in the market, and app downloads had grown 42 times. From 29, from 2008 to 2009, happy downloads, mobile app downloads had grown, like, 42 times.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lazarte: Brex co-founder Pedro Franceschi discovered early iPhone jailbreak
“That, like, back in the day, he was the first person to find one of the jail breaks for the iPhone, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lazarte: Benchmark's current venture fund size is $600 million
“It's actually a six hundred million dollar fund.”