why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Torsten Reil: Single operators will control autonomous drone swarms by 2025
“At the moment you have one operator operating one drone. That's going to happen It's going to happen quite quickly that that's going to change, and you'll be able, as a single operator, to control multiple drones, and that trend, I think, we'll see playing out…”
Assertion Supported
Torsten Reil: Traditional defense primes spend less than 5% on internal R&D
“In general, they're not incentivized to Spend a lot of their own money on R&D. I think it's probably less than five percent or so.”
Assertion Supported
Torsten Reil: Governments spend under 1% of equipment budgets on startups
“I think it's less than one percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Torsten Reil: Ukraine and Russia each produce 1.5M FPV drones annually
“I believe Ukraine is, is building one and a half million FPV drones, the small first person view drones, drones a year. I think Russia is building roughly the same.”
Assertion Supported
Torsten Reil's NaturalMotion licensed animation software for GTA V and Harry Potter
“We ended up using it in, and licensing it for visual effects in big Hollywood movies, like Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, Spider-Man, then for big video games like GTA IV, GTA V Max Payne and many others”
Assertion Partly supported
Torsten Reil: Poland increased defense spending from 2.1% to 4.7% of GDP
“Look at Poland, Poland has gone from, I think, 2.1% or so to 4.7 within just a few years.”
Assertion Supported
Torsten Reil: Russia is manufacturing Shahed drones licensed from Iran
“Iran is producing a large number of drones already. They've been you know, using and working on the Shahad, for example, for a long time. They've licensed that design to Russia. Russia is now manufacturing it itself.”