why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Fadell: Never invest in startups with four or more co-founders
“I don't like any, I don't like companies with more than three co-founders. I prefer it with two. Three can get as long as people, but four above forget. I don't want to go there.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2052
Fadell: Climate infrastructure startups will become blue-chip monopolies like Standard Oil
“These kinds of things are big money. And you know what? What's even better is once you build them, They are one of these blue, they will be a blue chip in 20 years, in 30 years, because they're gonna be the new standard oils and the, you know, what have you, r…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Plant-based materials will be cheaper than petroleum at scale
“Typically, yeah, it might be more expensive today for that material, but as soon as that volume hits, And we get, it takes off. Actually, it's going to be cheaper than the petroleum based product because it's built with plants and it's easier to make the plant…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Physical infrastructure will dramatically change over the next 20 years
“Almost every piece of infrastructure around us is going to change in a dramatic way with atoms over the next 10 to 20 years.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Fadell: The world's first trillionaire will be someone who fixes climate change
“The first trillionaire in the world is someone who's going to fix climate change. It's true, because it's going to be all about atoms, and it's going to be about changing the infrastructure around us.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Humanity has 20 to 30 years at most to solve climate change
“Because we only have 20 years, 30 years tops to get out and make this thing and fix it.”
Prediction Held up
Fadell matches book proceeds 5x to fund climate startups
“All proceeds, all net proceeds that are coming to me or what have you are going to a fund called the build climate fund. I'm going to match all of those proceeds five X, and we're only going to be investing in climate crisis companies, startups doing real stuf…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fadell: Financing SMB tech adoption represents a massive profit opportunity
“We are going to have to finance so many things, and this is where the finance industry can make a ton of money if they start looking at these small, medium-sized businesses And start looking at the technology that they could adopt if they were financed properl…”