The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Loverro: Late 2023 and 2024 startup fundraising wave will overwhelm VCs
“The way I back into the math says that there's a lot of companies that are going to be raising the end of this year and next year, and what's going to happen is there's only so many hours in a day for the investors who do, say, A, B, and C rounds that are goin…”
Loverro: Current tech downturn hangover will be worse than 2008 GFC
“In the lead up to the great financial crisis mortgages were going bananas. You had LBOs going bananas. Investors and venture weren't to the same degree. You didn't see companies in the public markets in tech or the privates trading at You know, hundreds of tim…”
Loverro: LPs will refuse to commit to fast-deploying venture funds
“Unfortunately, I think that is gonna be the comeuppance that a bunch of funds suffer. LPs are gonna say no.”
Loverro: Seed and Series A valuations won't return to $1.5M pre-money
“Now, are prices gonna go in seed and series A back to, you know, in series A levels where, you know, great companies were done at one and a half pre? No. Not happening.”
Loverro: Venture firms shifting back to three-year deployment cycles
“They, they're now saying, okay, I have to hit the brakes and I'm going to go back to that three year deployment cycle. And so that's dividing the dry powder out there by a third.”
Loverro: VC LP commitments in 2020-2021 will exceed 2023-2024 combined
“If we were to take a bet, Harry, is there, are there more LP commitments in 2023 and 24, or 21 and 21 combined? I guarantee you the 20 and 21 number was gonna be bigger than the 23 and 24 number, if you really zoom into that small timescale”
Loverro: The tech market frenzy of 2020-2021 is not coming back
“The craziness that went on in 2020 and 21 isn't coming back”
Loverro: Public software multiples have corrected to 2016-2018 levels
“So, you know, in the public markets, software companies, multiples there have corrected to what we saw in 2016, 1718 to normal multiples.”
Loverro: Startups will rush fundraising into July and August 2023
“I think a lot of firms or a lot of startups are going to be raising later this year. And that usually means like labor day and everybody wants to get in front of that. So my guess is July and August, we start seeing a lot more businesses come to market knowing…”
Loverro: Uber Proved Unit Economics by Highlighting Mature Cities Like NYC
“You know, Uber did this well, for instance, by showing, you know, yeah, hey, we're bleeding money left and right. But if you look at our oldest cities, these dense cities like New York, you know, the unit economics are actually fantastic.”