The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hulme: 90% of AI foundation model capital will go to zero
“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”
Hulme: Less venture capital will be available in two years
“I actually think there's probably going to be less money in the market for venture in two years than there is today.”
Hulme: Defense tech collaboration will become increasingly vital over 20 years
“I'm going to say working with the military is important, and it's going to become more important over the next 20 years.”
Tom Hulme: Hardware is under-invested and massive value will accrue there
“I'll go hardware. I think if you take a hardware company out to market, the people, investors, immediate response is, oh, that's really hard. But the paradox about venture capital is you need it to be difficult to be valuable. You need to be contrarian and rig…”
Hulme: Mark Zuckerberg will own 14% of world's H100s by year-end
“He'll have 350,000 H-one hundreds by the end of this year. That is 14% of the world's H-one hundreds, and he's going to open source the result.”
Hulme: Nothing will reach $600M revenue in 2024
“I think they'll do six hundred million dollars revenue this year. They've sold three, three million devices so far”
Tom Hulme: Tech spinout cycles are compressing from 5-10 years to 18-24 months
“Businesses are growing faster than they ever had before. So I think those cycles will happen quicker, quicker. Previous, it might be five or 10 years that you start to see the best senior operators come out and build a company. Now it might be 18 months, 24 mo…”
Hulme: Most impactful UK tech companies next decade will be AI-native and private
“I think we'll look back and the companies that are most impactful in the decade will have grown in the UK and they won't be names we know today because these companies are growing faster than ever. So they'll be AI native, incredibly fast growing businesses, a…”