why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Jaswa: Generative AI is pure hype and far from product-market fit
“Hype. Anything that gets this much attention this quickly at the tail end of a bubble. Is because people are grasping for something. Of course there are applications that will turn out to be wildly interesting and profound, but we're so early on that journey. …”
Opinion
Jaswa: Generative AI applications are far from true product-market fit
“If a product does not make life better, faster, easier, cheaper for a customer, It hasn't yet found product market fit. We are a long way from that with any of the generative AI applications that we've seen.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jaswa: A major VC found their best founders ignored investor calls
“When I was at Dropbox, one of the large, I won't say who, but one of the largest investors in the world In tech told me that they had run a survey of all the investments they'd ever made. And the founders that didn't actually talk to them, refused to take thei…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Jaswa: Only one or two of 1,000 'living dead' startups will pivot
“There is no doubt that one or two of those living dead companies will figure out a spectacular pivot over the next decade and builds unbelievable products that millions or tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people use. And that's one or two out of pro…”
Insight
Jaswa: Past operating experience is largely irrelevant when advising founders
“I think the biggest mistake operators make when they give advice to founders is it's purely out of the lens of their experience in the environment and the circumstances with the tools and the capabilities that they had available to them. And all those macro th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jaswa: Only 1-2 out of 1,000 'living dead' startups will pivot
“There is no doubt That one or two of those living dead companies will figure out a spectacular pivot over the next decade and builds unbelievable products that millions or tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people use. That's one or two out of probabl…”
Insight
Jaswa: Joining a $10B startup as employee 500 won't yield generational wealth
“You don't make generational wealth if you're employee 500 at a ten billion dollar company.”
Insight
Jaswa: 98% of struggling startups should strip to core and take moonshots
“So basically I think this will be true for what I might, again, I'm just making this up at 98% of these companies. Strip the business down to the core. So you generate whatever, you know, whatever that means. Don't waste more time on it if it's not working. An…”
Disclosure
Jaswa: Sequoia partners staged an intervention to force a Dropbox executive firing
“The first person I ever fired, I won't, obviously won't say who they are, but it was a person in a leadership role at Dropbox and was clearly not delivering results. And Sequoia basically staged intervention with me. So Brian Schreier, who was on our board was…”
Insight
Jaswa: Remote work deprives employees of learning by observing senior leaders
“And I think that's actually the biggest thing that's missing from remote work is there are things that I learned from watching working for some of the best people in our business or other businesses”
Insight
Jaswa: Former operators give flawed advice based on outdated experience
“I think the biggest mistake operators make when they give advice to founders is it's purely out of the lens of their experience in the environment and the circumstances with the tools and the capabilities that they had available to them. All those macro things…”
Insight
Jaswa: The biggest loss in remote work is passive leadership mentorship
“And I think that's actually the biggest thing that's missing from remote work. There are things that I learned from working for some of the best people in our business or other businesses.”
What-if
Jaswa: Dropbox's talent bar would have collapsed without co-founder Arash Ferdowsi
“He was actually the person who kept the talent bar at Dropbox as high as he did. Like Dropbox has that well-earned reputation for being a place where lots of talented people worked, and it would have, the bar would have easily come down if it wasn't for him.”
What-if
Jaswa: A $50B PayPal acquisition would have killed the PayPal Mafia
“If PayPal sold to eBay for fifty billion, I doubt the intensity and commitment to pursuing startups would have stayed that, would have been as high for as many of them. Certainly some, but not most.”
Disclosure
Jaswa: WndrCo abandoned its remote work experiment after two years
“We tried it for two years at Wonderco Harry and just blew it up. I just, I got us new offices starting, I mean, starting this month and next month.”
Insight
Jaswa: Silicon Valley startups have refocused on hard work and execution
“Over the last six or nine months, the idea of hard work being the priority of a startup, it's back to the top of the list, that your job is to fight for customers and build cool products and recruit the best people, and this doesn't sound like rocket science, …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jaswa: Dropbox will maintain a $10B valuation through the recession
“There's not going to be many after this whole recession is done that are worth ten billion, but Dropbox will be because it's just a cash flow machine.”
Insight
Jaswa: Knowing your competence boundary prevents investor failure
“Stay within your circle of competence. What doesn't matter is how big that circle is. What matters is knowing where the boundary actually is. I think that's where people get themselves in trouble all the time, is at that boundary.”