why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Stan Boland: UK's £30B annual tech funding yields virtually no results
“This, 20, thirty billion a year that we pump in at the front end per annum in tech. So, like, a hundred and fifty billion over a parliament in university funding for science and tech, in SEIS, in EIS, in VCTs, in R&D tax credits, and patent box, and so on. All…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: Jensen Huang publicly berates NVIDIA staff to force improvements
“So he will tear people apart in public on stuff that they've not got command of, or he thinks they're wrong about, and he will, like, rip them to shreds, and leave them whimpering in the corner to lick their wounds but I think he then sort of forgets it and ho…”
Assertion Partly supported
Stan Boland: UK VC fundraising of $3.7B trails US pro-rata target by $12B
“If you look at how much venture capital was raised by US VCs last year, it was about seventy six billion raised in the US. Pro rata to population, the UK should be 15.4 billion. The UK funds raised 3.7 billion last year, so we're short about twelve billion in …”
Assertion Partly supported
Boland: Even worst venture fund-of-funds outperform UK gilt yields
“The you know, the worst performing fund-of-funds generate maybe six percent IRR. The best performing generate mid-twenties. So always higher than gilt yields.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Boland: Europe will spend €2-3 trillion on defense within 8 years
“And there's probably, what, two to three trillion can be spent over the next five to eight years in Europe, in defense, actually, and all layers, not just final product, but like components, and there's lots of layers here, I think.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: UK venture capital faces a £10B annual funding gap
“Ten billion a year is what we've got to put in additional to what we're currently doing, and that's roughly the gap in our venture.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2026
Stan Boland: EIS and VCT fund returns range from 0.8x to 1.2x
“And, in fact, all the returns are somewhere between 80 cents and one dollar 20 on the dollar.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: NVIDIA maintained a management buffer layer to deal with Jensen Huang
“It's just, you know, so, so within NVIDIA, we used to have a, Jensen at the top, we had a layer of people whose job was to buffer everybody else in the company, actually. And so this buffer layer would deal with Jensen, which is great.”
Assertion Partly supported
Boland: US created $20T in decacorn value versus UK's $170B
“20 trillion dollars of value created in the last 50 years in building Decacorns in the US. The UK has created two, about a hundred and seventy billion of value in the UK.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stan Boland: No large fund of funds has ever lost money
“Firstly, no large fund of funds has ever lost money.”
Assertion Supported
Stan Boland: UK government VC fund-of-funds allocations should increase 10x
“I think BBB puts something like four hundred and twenty four million dollars a year into fund of funds investments, which is a drop in the ocean. Compared to the 15.4 billion that we ought to be investing. So so yeah, that number needs to be like 10 X in my vi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Boland: Europe holds only 2% of global fabless chip market
“Chip design, which is where 75% of the value in the semiconductor space is, is what NVIDIA is, what Qualcomm is, what Broadcom is, all basically semiconductor design companies that basically sell chips, that they get them fabbed. By TSMC or whoever. So that, t…”
Assertion Supported
Boland: Sage is London's only tech company worth over $10B
“There's only one London listed tech company worth more than ten billion, and that is Sage.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: Quant funds employ too few people to be UK tech's main talent drain
“There can't be that many people, so it can't be the biggest drain on talent.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: Cambridge research quality matches Stanford despite lower funding
“Cambridge is not that different to Stanford. You know, maybe a little bit smaller, maybe a bit less funded, but the quality of research that we're doing here is as good.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boland: Europeans will become much more open to doing business with Chinese companies
“So I think Europeans are gonna be much more open to working with Chinese companies and doing business in China than they were even a year ago, actually.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boland: BYD Has Cornered Key Battery Raw Materials
“It's certainly cornered the market in some of the rare materials that are necessary for batteries and so on, and I think it's got scale, and it's got ability to compete, really.”
Assertion Supported
Boland: NVIDIA Is Re-Architecting GPUs to Optimize for Inference
“They are making a bunch of architectural changes to GPUs to make them better and better inference.”
Prediction Held up
Stan Boland: UK tech sector will reach $500B valuation in 10 years
“I think in, in 10 years time, I think we will be on, we will have achieved this five hundred billion dollars valuation in, in tech, and the UK will be seen as the magnet in Europe in which people come to kind of build these companies so that, that's what I thi…”
Assertion Supported
Boland: UK AI talent supply remains net-flat as European gains offset US losses
“If you look at where talent is being born in, like, AI across Europe, and you look at where it lands in terms of where it stays, actually the UK is minting about the same talent it's keeping but that is a net-net, actually. So we're losing talent to the US and…”
Assertion Partly supported
Boland: UK spends $7.5B annually on R&D tax credits across 55k SMEs
“We're currently investing about seven and a half billion dollars a year in R&D tax credits for SMEs in 55,000 companies per annum in the UK.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boland: Edge AI Inference Will Require High Silicon Capacity
“I mean, yeah, but with that is coming a lot more sort of chain of thought reasoning, a lot more test time compute, so the token generation is still going up, actually. So I still think there's going to be a large amount of silicon required to be able to do sor…”