why aren't all 49 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Pishevar: Bill Gurley was the wrong VC on Uber's board
“We had the wrong venture capitalists on the board. Unfortunately, in my opinion, it was Bill Gurley at Benchmark.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pishevar: Bill Gurley hired PIs and met weekly to oust Travis Kalanick
“We found out in our investigation that he hired Some private investigators had weekly meetings about how do we get rid of Travis.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pishevar: Benchmark Hired Private Investigators Against Naval Ravikant
“There's a history of VCs who have done this type of thing and in Benchmark's case, they did it against Naval. They hired private investigators and Naval Ravikant. He had a company called eGroups, and he got thrown out of it.”
Opinion
Pishevar names Benchmark as the most overhyped VC firm
“Benchmark.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Pishevar: Fusion GPS gave a fake police report to Fast Company
“We found out an investigation that two weeks after I won the case founding Partner of Fusion GPS was sitting at a cafe in DC with a reporter from Fast Company with a memory stick and a fake police report from London about me. And they gave it to the reporter.”
What-if
Pishevar: Uber would be worth $1T if Travis Kalanick stayed
“I believe if Travis and Emil had stayed at Uber, Uber would be a trillion-dollar company by now.”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Holder's investigation report found no personal wrongdoing by Kalanick
“And the report, by the way, didn't find anything wrong that, you know, Travis did, or I did, or there was nothing, nothing in there about, you know, him, you know, directly and the recommendation was like to go hire a Sheryl Sandberg, like a chief operating of…”
Opinion
Pishevar: Firing Kalanick from Uber was tech's worst mistake since Jobs
“And so they got two, two of the greatest minds in Silicon Valley were taken out of the company. This is the greatest value destruction that's happened since firing Steve Jobs at Apple. And it was a massive mistake.”
Opinion
Pishevar: Benchmark ousting Travis Kalanick was one of worst VC decisions ever
“I believe that it was, you know, one of the worst venture, ah, decisions ever.”
Disclosure
Pishevar spent millions investigating Fusion GPS smear campaign
“It was worth it to me to, you know, spend millions of dollars on a, legal fees and doing the, we filed seven, four, the latest one is against Fusion GPS, and the judge found with us last year, and is gonna force Fusion GPS to say who hired them”
Opinion
Pishevar: Traditional venture capital model is dead
“Venture capital as it is today, especially with private equity coming downstream and what we've seen with the drunken era venture capital is dead. The venture capital that we grew up with and that we looked up to is that model is gone.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Pishevar: Quantum and AI merger will cure all diseases within 10 years
“Quantum and AI, even at the chipset level, are going to merge. And then that's going to revolutionize all aspects of our lives. We'll find cures to every known disease known to mankind within, I would say, the next 10 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2045
Pishevar: Humans will achieve 150-plus year lifespan within 20 years
“Don't die in the next 20 years, because we're gonna reach a point of longevity where you'll be able to help, live a healthy life for 150 plus years.”
Opinion
Pishevar: Steve Ballmer was a terrible CEO despite massive wealth
“Steve Ballmer. You know, the decade that he was CEO of Microsoft, Microsoft was completely just flat, right? And he's now richer than Bill Gates, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pishevar: New nation states will be established and populated in our lifetimes
“We're gonna basically see new nation states, new countries be started in our lifetimes, and you're gonna see a lot of people opt in to those new, new nations.”
What-if
Pishevar: Uber allies should have staged OpenAI-style employee revolt for Kalanick
“What I wish I had done or had the wisdom to know to do was what, you know, Sam and his allies did in getting the employees at OpenAI to back Sam and say, if he doesn't come back, we're gonna leave. . It was very powerful, and if we had done that at Uber, becau…”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Kalanick's six-month regulatory delay cost Uber 30% market share to Lyft
“Travis Basically for six months was like, you know, telling the taxi commission, the city, government, like, you know, hey, these guys are illegal, like, well, you know, why are you allowing it, et cetera, instead of launching it, you know, as well which was l…”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Uber nearly acquired Lyft, but Lyft demanded too much ownership
“Andreessen, having lost the Uber deal, ended up doing the Lyft deal, and we had, you know, Travis and Emil, you know, they were close to acquiring it acquiring Lyft which, you know but they wanted too much ownership so that luckily didn't work out”
Assertion Supported
Benchmark sued Travis Kalanick in Delaware court over Uber board seats
“About in early August They then sued in Delaware courts after they had already gotten rid of Travis. They then sued to get rid of him and his two board seats that he had gotten that he hadn't appointed yet. So three board seats. So they wanted, you know, effec…”
Assertion Partly supported
Delaware judge rejected Benchmark's effort to remove Uber board seats
“We make our arguments and the judge finds with us and rejects Benchmark's attempt to get rid of the three board seats.”
Assertion Open
Pishevar: London police emails explicitly disavowed fabricated report to journalists
“And there were multiple emails from the London police telling the reporter, like, this is not our report.”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Kalanick and Michael initiated SoftBank's $12B Uber deal
“So the SoftBank conversations, ironically, Travis and Emil started those conversations, the ultimate twelve billion dollar investment from SoftBank Vision Fund.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Pishevar: Trump administration will open VC to non-accredited investors
“So I think in the Trump administration, we'll see changes in that direction of like opening it up. And so that model I think is gonna change.”
Opinion
Pishevar: Masa Son's thesis of $9T annual value from AI capex makes sense
“Massa in Saudi, one of the things he talked about is he did his calculations, and the numbers for me make a lot of sense that basically you need to spend, you know, trillions, single digit trillions, and then you're gonna get nine trillion of annual value comi…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2030
Pishevar: SpaceX will become a $10 trillion company
“So I think SpaceX will be a 10 trillion dollar company. It's just getting started.”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Menlo's $26.5M Uber investment grew to nearly $6.7B
“For twenty million at the time, later I got another six and a half million through secondary for Menlo. So that investment at today's prices is worth almost seven billion dollars.”
Disclosure
Pishevar sold all Facebook shares to bet everything on Uber secondary stock
“He allowed me to buy secondary shares from another early person, so I sold all my Facebook shares that had gone public at like, 53 bucks, 58 bucks a share, and I put it all I bet it all, everything I had, I put it all into Uber.”
Insight
Pishevar: Exceptional tech founders are 1,000x humans worth waiting to invest in
“These are people that are like, it's not even 10 X, you talk about 10 X engineers, these are like thousand X humans and so I've learned over time that it's worth waiting for the thousand X founders and investing in the future Travis's, or the future Elon's”
Opinion
Pishevar: Kalanick and Musk are rare Nobel Prize-level founders
“Nobody can do what Elon's doing. Nobody can do what Travis is doing. No matter how great you are. These are, like, rare, rare Nobel Prize winning, essentially, founders.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pishevar: Uncovering who hired Fusion GPS will destroy careers
“Once we find out who've, who hired Fusion GPS, then, you know, I think careers are gonna fall.”
Disclosure
Pishevar: Passed on WeWork over flawed business model
“I passed on that company, that was ironically another benchmark company. I passed on that company because it didn't, I remember the dot com crash and all the office buildings being cleared up. And I was like, I don't get this business model. You don't own, own…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Pishevar: Venture capital liquidity and IPOs will recover within four years
“Liquidity has been a major problem and especially during the four years of Biden and it just coincided with really bad policies and, you know, a derf of M&A lack of IPOs I think that's gonna change in the next four years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pishevar: Chinese EV makers will stay competitive even with 100% tariffs
“Even with tariffs, these, the Chinese electric car companies have gotten to the point that, you know, their cars are like 15,000 dollars, and they're good cars. So even if you add a hundred percent tariff, You're still talking about 30,000 dollars, still affor…”
Assertion Contradicted
Pishevar: Hundreds of startups are currently attempting to build new nations
“There's now hundreds of startups starting new nations.”
Disclosure
Pishevar: Menlo Ventures passed on Snapchat seed and Series A rounds
“I, so, I brought Snapchat to Menlo. Evan and I hit it off. I really believe that. I was on it in the first 30 days, because my kids were on it, and so they showed it to me, and I was chasing it, and Evan and I hit it off and unfortunately Menlo passed on the, …”
Assertion Open
Pishevar: Closed Uber, Warby Parker, Tumblr, and Machine Zone in 90 days
“In my first 90 days, I closed Uber, Warby Parker Tumblr, and Machine Zone.”
What-if
Pishevar: Deal-by-deal carry yielded higher returns than Menlo's fund carry
“I got more carry than I would have gotten in the fund by agreeing to do deal by deal carry.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Pishevar purchased secondary Uber stock at effective 33 cents per share
“It was 33 cents a share, effectively based on today's prices, so it would be 33 cents a share.”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Emil Michael architected Uber's $15B fundraising efforts
“He architected the fifteen billion dollar raise he had a massive impact on the trajectory of Uber, and he became really Travis's right hand and sparring partner in building, building Uber.”
Disclosure
Pishevar's fund invested $50M in Uber China and $50M in Didi
“So I, ah, our fund, we put fifty million into the beginning of Uber China, and then later put another fifty million into Didi when they merged.”
Assertion Open
Pishevar: TPG bought $83M of Garrett Camp's Uber shares via Waverly Loan
“Solution was I introduced them to Waverly Loans, and we did the largest Waverly Loan in history, which was eighty-three million and bought Garrett Camp's shares for TPG for that amount.”
Assertion Partly supported
Pishevar: TPG generated nearly $2B return on $83M Uber investment
“I think TPG on that eighty-three million made close to two billion.”
Disclosure
Pishevar: Made couple hundred million dollars from Uber investment
“Couple hundred million. Yeah.”
Disclosure
Pishevar turned $25,000 into $4 million investing in Lowercase Capital
“I would say it would be lowercase Chris Saka's fund. I put, you know, a little check in there and got four million out like, 25,000 turned into four million, so it was a legendary fund. I think it was like ten million and returned like 1.5000000000 or somethin…”
Disclosure
Pishevar passed on investing in Zimride before it became Lyft
“What happened was Lyft was, you know, Zimride, and I had passed on Zimride”
Disclosure
Pishevar: Sherpa Capital raised $200M in SPVs for Uber
“So I ended up doing, we ended up doing two hundred million dollars of SPVs for Uber, on top of these other investments, and”
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Uber's Series D valuation was negotiated up to $17B from $10B
“So that Series D, like a year after the Series C, which Google and TPG did, that was at three billion. This was at seventeen billion, and we started off at 10. So, Emil was able to negotiate from, like, 10, eleven billion valuation to 17, because there was so …”
Assertion Partly supported
Benchmark invested $10M in Uber at $50M valuation in 2011
“Benchmark invested in March, 2011 at a, I believe it was a fifty million dollar pre-money valuation. They put ten million in.”