why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mohnot: A severe startup valuation drop is coming due to market overhang
“I think there's this overhang of valuations and we haven't yet seen the drop that is going to come and it's going to be so severe.”
Prediction Held up
Mohnot: Tiger Global will raise much smaller funds moving forward
“And I think, so I think they're doing a really good job now, and I think I think it's gonna be a much smaller fund, and like you said, it's gonna be a ton of their own GP money, but I'm excited about them. I think they're good actors.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mohnot: VC funds will not return uninvested capital this cycle
“I don't think so. I know that that's happened in the past. I don't just, I just don't see it happening this cycle. And probably if it were to happen, it would have already happened.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Mohnot: Better Tomorrow Ventures will cap its fund size at $225M
“My fund zero was fifteen million, then we went to 75, and now we're two 25 total. But we don't want to grow from here.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Mohnot: Operators running tiny micro-VC funds will struggle to raise Fund 2
“I don't think many of these folks are going to continue on. Like their fund two, fund threes are going to be really tough.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mohnot: More venture capital funds will shrink their fund sizes
“I think we'll see more. I think we have to.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sheel Mohnot: Better Tomorrow Ventures targeting 15% average fund ownership
“We averaged 10%, and in this fund, we're hoping to average closer to 15.”
Prediction Held up
Mohnot: BTV accelerator will invest $500k each in 6-10 startups
“So ours is, we'll probably have about 10 companies in this We're thinking six to 10, and we're investing a half million in every company.”