why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mohnot: Founder secondary sales exceeding 1x ARR correlate with negative returns
“But I think if you look at, if you did an index of companies where founders took You know, a lot more than that, what I described, like, one X ARR off the table. You have a very negative returning fund.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mohnot: A severe startup valuation drop is coming due to market overhang
“I think there's this overhang of valuations and we haven't yet seen the drop that is going to come and it's going to be so severe.”
Prediction Held up
Mohnot: Tiger Global will raise much smaller funds moving forward
“And I think, so I think they're doing a really good job now, and I think I think it's gonna be a much smaller fund, and like you said, it's gonna be a ton of their own GP money, but I'm excited about them. I think they're good actors.”
Assertion Supported
Tier-One VC Funds Are Now Accepting 8% Ownership Stakes in Series A
“So I think it's happening and that never used to happen. You wouldn't have like a tier one fund taking Eight percent ownership in a Series A. But that's happening.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mohnot: Data-driven VC invested in Zume Pizza based on Facebook shares
“So, okay, on that company, I met a guy who invested in that company early, or relatively early, and it was a data-driven VC. And I was like, what data do you have for this company? And he was like, we have all this data on, like, number of shares on Facebook o…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mohnot: VC funds will not return uninvested capital this cycle
“I don't think so. I know that that's happened in the past. I don't just, I just don't see it happening this cycle. And probably if it were to happen, it would have already happened.”
Assertion Supported
Mohnot: 2021 emerging market seed valuations hit $20M despite hard exit paths
“People started paying, like, seed rounds at twenty million dollar valuations, and in, in a market that's gonna be a really tough path to get to a billion dollar plus exit.”
Assertion Supported
Mohnot: Every committed LP backed out of BTV's March 2020 fund close
“And this close that we were supposed to do in March, everyone who had already committed, including people who had signed, backed out.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Mohnot: Better Tomorrow Ventures will cap its fund size at $225M
“My fund zero was fifteen million, then we went to 75, and now we're two 25 total. But we don't want to grow from here.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Mohnot: Operators running tiny micro-VC funds will struggle to raise Fund 2
“I don't think many of these folks are going to continue on. Like their fund two, fund threes are going to be really tough.”
Assertion Supported
Mohnot: Multi-stage funds reduced Series A ownership targets from 20% to 15%
“Is a lot of, let's say a lot of the like multi-stage funds, typically historically leading series A's, they used to have an ownership threshold of. 20% minimum. And now they have a lower ownership threshold, 15.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mohnot Has Not Read a Book in Twelve Years
“I haven't read a book in a dozen years, and I've found that, like, I know authors, I find that, like, books are too long and full of fluff, I get a lot more out of reading articles, long form articles or listening to podcasts.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mohnot: More venture capital funds will shrink their fund sizes
“I think we'll see more. I think we have to.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
One 500 Fintech Portfolio Company Returned the Entire Fund Five Times Over
“Even though I invested in 70 plus companies, there's only a handful of them that really matter, and the one The one biggest one represents a five X on the fund.”
Assertion Supported
Mohnot: Fintech seed valuations did not fall in 2022
“Seed valuations in fintech, for some reason, haven't really fallen much. And so our 20, 22 numbers are actually higher. We're investing at a higher valuation than we were then.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mohnot: BTV portfolio Series A rounds hit $100M-$125M valuations in late 2021
“Particularly second half of last year, all of the series A's in our portfolio, like we were doing them at the price that, you know, we invest that, and then they were getting done at the hundred to 125 range.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mohnot: Uber raised $25B in VC to reach a $50B enterprise value
“And you've seen it with the likes of Uber, you know, today, a fifty billion dollar enterprise value. There's twenty-five billion dollars of venture capital money that went into that company.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sheel Mohnot: Better Tomorrow Ventures targeting 15% average fund ownership
“We averaged 10%, and in this fund, we're hoping to average closer to 15.”
Prediction Held up
Mohnot: BTV accelerator will invest $500k each in 6-10 startups
“So ours is, we'll probably have about 10 companies in this We're thinking six to 10, and we're investing a half million in every company.”