The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: AI will make software engineers 10x faster within three years
“Look, I think in three years, there's no reason that shouldn't be a 10 X.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 18:04 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: AI will make 30 million global software engineers 10x more efficient
“There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 22:20 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Future software engineering will replace coding with expressing intent
“At some point, telling your computer what to do is not going to take place with code. It is going to take place with you just expressing your intent.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 31:04 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Wu: Private AI foundation labs will far exceed $500B aggregate valuation
“If you add all their valuations today, what is that? Like, 500 B, something like that? I think that's gonna go way up in the next five years.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 40:27 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Wu: The AI foundation model market will consolidate to two to six players
“I think the consolidation happens, and I think in total we probably end up with something like Two to six players.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 41:34 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: AI agents will match IDE familiarity within six to 12 months
“I think you fast forward six to 12 months from now, and I think people will be familiar with agents to the same level that, that they're familiar with IDEs today.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 26:42 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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