The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cognition added roughly $80M in run-rate revenue in six to eight months
“Yeah, look, I don't want to get into exact numbers, but even with the windsurf deal aside, like not including that at all, we are basically, we've done roughly that as well in the last six to eight months.”
Wu: AI will make software engineers 10x faster within three years
“Look, I think in three years, there's no reason that shouldn't be a 10 X.”
Wu: AI will make 30 million global software engineers 10x more efficient
“There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code.”
Wu: Future software engineering will replace coding with expressing intent
“At some point, telling your computer what to do is not going to take place with code. It is going to take place with you just expressing your intent.”
Wu: Private AI foundation labs will far exceed $500B aggregate valuation
“If you add all their valuations today, what is that? Like, 500 B, something like that? I think that's gonna go way up in the next five years.”
Wu: Anthropic has quadrupled its revenue since reaching a $60B valuation
“Well, Anthropic has quadrupled their revenue since they were valued at sixty billion, so it seems like a fair one to pick.”
Wu: The AI foundation model market will consolidate to two to six players
“I think the consolidation happens, and I think in total we probably end up with something like Two to six players.”
Cognition learned of Windsurf's Google deal at the same time as the public
“We found out, honestly, on Friday, the same time everyone else did, that all of this was happening, and that this was the split, and that it was Google”
Cognition initiated cold outreach to acquire Windsurf on a Friday night
“We reached out cold Friday evening and our first conversation was Friday night.”
Cognition negotiated and signed the Windsurf acquisition over a single weekend
“Get, get to a verbal agreement on Saturday, hash out all the details and the terms and the legal on Sunday, get everything signed and done on Monday morning.”
Wu: AI tools currently give software engineers a 1.5x to 2x speedup
“And I would say that something in that range of, you know, 1.5 to two X feels right to me today in aggregate.”
Wu: Cognition's Devin usage grew 5x to 10x in the past six months
“In the last six months, you know, between January and now, you know, like, even aside from this, you know, obviously the latest deal this week with Windsor The usage of Devon has actually grown something like five to 10 X. And that's been the case in both self…”