The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cognition added roughly $80M in run-rate revenue in six to eight months
“Yeah, look, I don't want to get into exact numbers, but even with the windsurf deal aside, like not including that at all, we are basically, we've done roughly that as well in the last six to eight months.”
Wu: Fewer than 10,000 researchers drive the vast majority of AI progress
“Somewhere in between those two is right. You know, I think there are at least a hundred folks that, that, that, that are, that really matter in making a lot. A lot of differences. Certainly less than 10,000 and probably a good bit less than that, if I had to g…”
Wu: AI application layer talent competition is fiercer than at foundation labs
“I think the level of talent and the fierceness of competition is, in many of these is actually like, Greater even in the application layer, which is crazy to say, because I think the competition in the Foundation Labs is extremely strong.”
Wu: AI will make software engineers 10x faster within three years
“Look, I think in three years, there's no reason that shouldn't be a 10 X.”
Wu: AI will make 30 million global software engineers 10x more efficient
“There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code.”
Wu: Future software engineering will replace coding with expressing intent
“At some point, telling your computer what to do is not going to take place with code. It is going to take place with you just expressing your intent.”
Wu: Private AI foundation labs will far exceed $500B aggregate valuation
“If you add all their valuations today, what is that? Like, 500 B, something like that? I think that's gonna go way up in the next five years.”
Wu: Anthropic has quadrupled its revenue since reaching a $60B valuation
“Well, Anthropic has quadrupled their revenue since they were valued at sixty billion, so it seems like a fair one to pick.”
Wu: The AI foundation model market will consolidate to two to six players
“I think the consolidation happens, and I think in total we probably end up with something like Two to six players.”
Wu: The decline of founders going down with the ship is disappointing
“I think there's an unspoken covenant that as a founder, you go down with the ship, and I think that for better or for worse, it's changed a bit over the last year, and I think it's a bit disappointing, to be honest.”
Cognition learned of Windsurf's Google deal at the same time as the public
“We found out, honestly, on Friday, the same time everyone else did, that all of this was happening, and that this was the split, and that it was Google”
Cognition initiated cold outreach to acquire Windsurf on a Friday night
“We reached out cold Friday evening and our first conversation was Friday night.”
Cognition negotiated and signed the Windsurf acquisition over a single weekend
“Get, get to a verbal agreement on Saturday, hash out all the details and the terms and the legal on Sunday, get everything signed and done on Monday morning.”
Wu: Reinforcement learning is AI's biggest breakthrough of the last 18 months
“You know, it's RL, for example, is I would say the biggest breakthrough of the last year and a half call it.”
Wu: AI tools currently give software engineers a 1.5x to 2x speedup
“And I would say that something in that range of, you know, 1.5 to two X feels right to me today in aggregate.”
Wu: Cognition's Devin usage grew 5x to 10x in the past six months
“In the last six months, you know, between January and now, you know, like, even aside from this, you know, obviously the latest deal this week with Windsor The usage of Devon has actually grown something like five to 10 X. And that's been the case in both self…”
Wu: Current AI coding capabilities alone would fundamentally transform the world
“In AI code, to be truly honest, if there was zero progress, the world would still be entirely different.”