The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Motamedi: Google Trends for AI prosumer apps show rapid drop-off
“Take your favorite, you know, AI prosumer application that's going really fast and just go run the Google trend graph on it. For many of them, you'll see an amazing peak. And then also it really quickly comes down.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 6:01 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
First-gen AI writing apps have seen growth metrics crash
“And by the way, Harry, like again, it's early, but we're seeing some of the first generation AI apps that two years ago, everybody was talking about writing assistance and the rest that had unbelievable growth metrics. You know, now come down quite a bit and r…”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 7:45 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Motamedi predicts SaaS will shift to hybrid seat and work-based pricing
“I think we're going to see hybrid pricing models. Where you're going to layer on to seats the type of work that you're doing for the end user, and you're going to monetize that separately, and that will allow these companies to continue growing inside accounts…”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 15:48 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Motamedi: No new horizontal system of record SaaS company launched in 5-6 years
“Now, why has there not been a new deep horizontal system of record SaaS company built over the last five or six years? I can't think of one.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 16:48 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Motamedi: Series A valuations range from $80M to $200M post-money
“For series A, based on what we're saying, again, for that kind of cohort of companies, If you have a little bit of product market fit, again, we're seeing pricing between 80 and maybe a 152 hundred post on the high end.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 24:11 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Motamedi: Wiz Raised Series A at $500M Valuation with Zero ARR
“Wiz, when they raised their Series A at a five hundred million dollar valuation, had zero in ARR.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 40:41 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Abnormal Security reached $100M ARR growing over 100% year-over-year
“We were fortunate at Greylock to initiate a company called Abnormal Security, which recently announced they've crossed a hundred million of ARR growing north of a hundred percent.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 43:01 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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