The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ehrenberg: Broad VC platform services are useless at the seed stage
“And the bottom line is at the very early seed stage where you're just trying to prove out the experiments. None of this crap matters, right? Conversely, once you've proven the experiments and you've got a real company and you've got a company that is worthy, t…”
Ehrenberg: Very early stage artisanal venture capital will never be scalable
“That's the thing is very early artisanal VC is not scalable and it never will be. People have tried and they have failed.”
Ehrenberg: Continuation Funds Exploit Venture Capitalists' Desperation for LP Liquidity
“Because there has been so little liquidity for so long, some managers are desperate because they're under tremendous heat from their LPs. To get blood from a stone, right? And then you've got continuation fund managers that are deeply aware of the phenomenon I…”
Ehrenberg: Seed investors should almost never join pay-to-play rounds
“What the data shows is that, and this is a hard thing to stomach, it almost never makes sense to participate in a pay-to-play as a very early investor. Almost never.”
Ehrenberg: Concentrated seed portfolios best deliver 3x to 5x net returns
“What that really led me to believe when I looked at modeling portfolio construction around the time that I started IA was that a much more concentrated strategy than a more traditional strategy. 40, 50, 60 portfolio constituent approach was what I felt had the…”
Ehrenberg: Seed VC signaling risk is a red herring for Series A
“The notion of misalignment is somewhat of a red herring because smart investors will see what we're seeing and that if the company hasn't done well, Then they're not going to be able to raise anyway.”
Ehrenberg: Venture Capital Returns Below 10% Fail to Compensate for Illiquidity
“If you could get risk adjusted returns of. 12 to 15%, that's pretty freaking good. If it's below 10%, then you're not getting paid for the risk. Right, so there's, it's what is the premium that you're willing to accept Above liquid strategies over long periods…”
Ehrenberg: Venture Capital Requires a 500-700 Basis Point Illiquidity Premium
“If you're getting paid 500 to 700 basis points for illiquidity, and you're a, either a perpetual institution by charter or just so massive that you effectively act like that, then Yes, that occupies a perfectly fine place in your portfolio.”
Ehrenberg: Secondaries Are Now the Only Way to Recycle Capital
“Really, the only way to get that recycling now is through secondary.”
Roger Ehrenberg: Fund managers raising capital must be shocking and ignore playbooks
“Be different. Take risk. Don't play it safe. Have a deeply held thesis and just put it out there. Be shocking. Don't be a sheep. Don't follow the playbook.”
Ehrenberg: The best founders use VCs for psychological support, not dependence
“I think the best founders aren't dependent. I think the best founders benefit from really good VCs to act as a sounding board, especially in those earliest days and to give them honestly, empathy and psychological support, because that is often the hardest thi…”
Ehrenberg: Early-stage startups should maintain 30 months of cash runway
“We generally preach, you know, 30 months of burn on your balance sheet, and really not ramping up spend significantly until you've demonstrated real customer traction.”
Ehrenberg: Venture success relies on amplifying upside, not protecting downside
“Being successful in venture is not protecting downside, it's amplifying upside, and pay to play is Are all about protecting downside.”
Ehrenberg: Great product and market cannot compensate for a mediocre founder
“The notion of a great Product in a great market does not compensate for a meh founder, and I think I fell into the trap of thinking the founder's good enough because market and product was so strong, and I got that wrong.”
Ehrenberg: Seed follow-on funding avoids founder misalignment with upfront clarity
“We do not think there's misalignment As long as there is absolute clarity with the founder prior to investing as to what constitutes success for the series A.”
Ehrenberg: Enterprise product-market fit means selling software without heavy services
“So to us, product market fit at that point is where sales cycle has come way in, where there's not the need for heavy services in order to get somebody to buy, but where the product fit and finish is such that somebody is just willing to buy the product.”
Ehrenberg: Single-Turn VC Transactions Wildly Increase Outcome Volatility
“If you reduce everything because of the scale, right? To a single turn game, then that wildly increases the volatility of potential outcomes.”
Ehrenberg: Regulatory and IP Complexity Protects Startups From AI Disruption
“But I do think that the issues of Legal and regulatory complexity. And again, whether, whether it's financial infrastructure or it's media rights, copyright, patent, IP, it makes it more nuanced than am I able to develop the next base model or a great platform…”
Ehrenberg: Focus on portfolio fundamentals, not asset prices during downturns
“It's super important to go back to first principles, not focus on the price, but focus on the portfolio, and focus on, do you feel good about your positions?”
Ehrenberg: 24 months of runway is table stakes for development-stage startups
“In terms of having some extra cushion for companies that are really still very much in the developmental stage, I think, 24 months is table stakes.”
Ehrenberg: Early-stage VC success requires process-oriented founders and data iteration
“Especially, Harry, where we're investing in IA, which is so early, where there is such sparse data, that if we don't have a process, if we don't have founders that embrace experimentation, if we don't have a rigorous approach to data collection, analysis, iter…”