why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Malik: Turning off Lyft's paid channels reduced signups by only 5-10%
“And so the growth marketing team turns off every single paid channel and installs and signups barely move. They go down by like maybe five, 10%. I don't remember what it was and what did go down. It was all Low quality. So every marketing dollar that was being…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Malik: Lyft overestimated product iteration potential and hit diminishing returns early
“We overestimated how much better we could make the ride sharing product. I think we started to hit, like when you look at ride sharing four or five years ago versus today, how much has the product changed? Not that much. So if you don't believe, well, sorry, i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Malik: The majority of AI value will emerge at the application layer
“When I joined Perplexity and was writing out my pro-con list, I think the one that was, like, up there was, like, can the application layer capture and monetize value? And, or is it all just, you know, one big pass through cost? And now, you know, fast forward…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Malik: Organic word of mouth drives 80% of Perplexity's growth
“Word of mouth, yeah. About 80%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Malik: Perplexity is completely unoptimized for driving user subscriptions
“Like you look at perplexity, it is completely unoptimized for driving subscriptions.”
Assertion Contradicted
Malik: Duolingo achieves a world-class 50% 12-month user retention rate
“Yeah, that's 12 month retention at 50%. World-class. And the engine they have built is incredible.”
Prediction Held up
Malik: Perplexity plans student-focused partnerships for distribution at scale
“So I think a lot about the student audience. And so there's some partnerships in that student world that I really want to break into to help drive distribution within students at scale.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Malik: Perplexity shifts strategy to partner with fewer high-relationship creators
“And so I think we're moving very quickly as we'd rather work with fewer creators and just develop a really good relationship with them.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Malik targets 30% conversion rate for logged-out Perplexity visitors
“From that logged out experience, we, I'd love to push that into, like, the 30% of users are hitting my milestone metrics, and we're converting them to signed in users.”
Prediction Held up
Malik: Perplexity is moving toward simpler landing page messaging
“Where we're moving to is really simple language around ask anything or what do you want to know and search like never before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Malik: Perplexity under-indexes in brand awareness among students vs ChatGPT
“There are students using perplexity and getting tons and tons of value, but we under index and awareness with students relative to chat GPT.”
Assertion Supported
Malik: Early adoption of unique channels drove growth for Dropbox and Pinterest
“Dropbox, Dropbox, like with the referral program, Groupon and email, Pinterest and SEO, Duolingo, and just like a totally unhinged social media, right? All of them were kind of first to this concept and it really, really worked.”