why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Vohra: Gamification does not work, but true game design does
“Gamification does not really work. Game design works, but game design is not gamification.”
Insight
Vohra: Great product design can mean making software harder to use
“And number seven, and this is the hardest one of them all, balance high perceived skill with high perceived challenge, and this may counter-intuitively mean making your product harder to use.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vohra: 60 to 70 onboarding specialists can scale a startup to $100M ARR
“Each onboarding specialist can do in the region of 35 to 45 calls per week, and if you do the math, then it turns out that you only need in the region of 60 to 70 onboarding specialists to get to that level of revenue.”
Insight
Startups should disregard product feedback from users who are not disappointed
“So as painful as it is, you should politely disregard the not disappointed users. They are so far from loving the products that they are essentially a lost cause.”
Insight
Doubling down only on loved features will not increase product-market fit scores
“If you only double down on what users love, your product market fit score will not increase. And if you only address what holds users back, your competition will likely overtake you.”
Prediction Held up
Superhuman's 1-on-1 concierge onboarding model can scale to $20M in ARR
“I think it's scalable, yes, for sure. I can see us getting to anywhere between 10 and twenty million dollars of ARR on this basis.”
Insight
Startups should raise capital in Silicon Valley but spend it elsewhere
“The rational thing to do is, is headquarter here, be here, raise money here because capital is relatively abundant and Valuations are high. It's a very founder-friendly place to be, but it isn't rational to spend money here. The rational thing to do is to go a…”
Opinion
Vohra: Gmail degraded yearly in speed, clutter, and resource consumption
“I could see Gmail getting worse every single year, becoming more cluttered, using more memory, consuming more CPU, slowing down your machine, and still not working properly offline.”
Insight
Vohra: Game design requires five critical factors across four disciplines
“To create games, we need to draw upon the art and science of psychology, mathematics, storytelling, and interaction design. And in doing so, I've found five critical factors, and they are goals, emotions, controls, Toys, and this curious thing that we call flo…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vohra: Superhuman Will Be a $1B Multi-Product Company by 2025
“In five years' time, we'll be a billion-dollar company, and I think we'll have multiple product lines.”
Assertion Supported
Vohra raised Superhuman's seed round using a single slide with no prototype
“So, you know, no team, no prototype, no traction, just a concept, and one slide of PowerPoint to raise that money.”
Opinion
Vohra: Marc Andreessen's product-market fit definition is post-hoc and unactionable
“Here's the thing with Mark Andreessen's definition. It's a post hoc definition. He's describing what the world is like when you've already got there and it's unactionable.”
Insight
Product-market fit requires 40% of users to be very disappointed without it
“And after benchmarking a hundred startups, Sean found that the companies that struggle to grow almost always get less than 40% very disappointed, whereas companies that grow easily almost always get more than 40% very disappointed. And so what he's saying is t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Superhuman raised its product-market fit score by 10% simply through user segmentation
“And so for us, just by segmenting our product market fit score jumps by 10% from 22% to 32%.”
Disclosure
Superhuman splits quarterly R&D 50/50 between power users and fence-sitters
“So what we do at the start of every quarter is we give ourselves a 50% R&D budget for doubling down on the very disappointed users, the things that people love. And 50% R&D budget, addressing what holds users back, converting those somewhat disappointed users …”
Insight
Vohra: Investors must stop pushing early-stage startups for premature growth
“My suggestion to the investment community, especially the investment community that advises early stage teams, would be to stop pushing for premature growth, especially premature growth at a product market fit. I think as an industry, we all already know that …”
Insight
Startups should only scale aggressively after sustaining a 40% product-market fit score
“When you're past the 40% threshold and that number is sustaining, even as you're adding more users, the metric isn't going down. That's when you want to push Pedal to metal. That's when you want to grow as fast as you can.”
Insight
Accepting preemptive rounds is significantly more efficient than running active fundraising processes
“I have found for superhuman, and we've been executing it this way, that it is actually, if you can pull it off, much, much, much more efficient to not do that and to let the market come to you. So to be always sufficiently well capitalized ahead of your needs …”
Assertion Supported
Vohra: Stanford study showed expected rewards halved children's drawing time
“The children with no reward spent 17% of their time drawing. But the children who expected a reward, they only spent Eight percent of their time drawing. The reward had halved their motivation.”
Insight
Vohra: $100M ARR is the benchmark for $1B valuation and expansion
“One of the simple questions I always ask myself from my perspective as an angel investor is, can this potential company get to a hundred million dollars of annual recurring revenue? And there's a few reasons behind that. I think number one, that's the point at…”
Insight
Vohra: The best games are built with toys
“And as it turns out, the best games are built with toys. Why? Because then they are fun on multiple levels. The level of the toy, and of the game itself.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Vohra: Five YC Batch Companies Adopted Superhuman's Command K Pattern
“In just the Y Combinator batch, I saw five different companies that had incorporated this into their product, and we have companies like Linear that have just recently raised from Sequoia that have done the same.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vohra: Next Software Generation Will Hyper-Invest in User Onboarding UI
“And I think it's going to be a sea change. We're going to have this whole generation of products that hyper-invests in not only teaching users what to do next, but also how to do it.”
Assertion Supported
Vohra: Superhuman's Renderer Displays Next Email in Under 32 Milliseconds
“Initially, we set out to show the next conversation in 100 milliseconds or less, because that's roughly the threshold at which point user interfaces feel instant. Well, we now have a new renderer that is three times as fast, and can do this in 32 milliseconds …”
Opinion
Vohra: 'The Art of Game Design' is the best book on game design
“Of all of the books ever written on game design, I think if you were to read only one, this would be the one, and it covers much of what we've talked about here, as well as a whole lot more.”
Assertion Partly supported
Vohra: Early-Stage Valuations Dropped 20-30% in Early COVID-19
“I've seen early stage valuations drop by about 20 to 30%, and I've even seen some term sheets being pulled from deals”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Reportive was the first Gmail plugin to reach millions of users
“So in 2010, I'd started that company, Reportive, and we built the first Gmail plugin to scale to millions of users.”
Opinion
Vohra: Gmail deteriorated every year in speed, memory, and usability
“And I could see Gmail getting worse every single year, becoming more cluttered, using more memory, consuming more CPU, slowing down your machine, still not working properly offline.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Early Superhuman surveys showed only 22% of users were very disappointed
“15 or 20% for the early superhuman days, our number was actually 22%, very disappointed, with a whopping 52% of people somewhat disappointed without the product.”
Insight
Asking users who benefits most generates highly effective marketing copy
“So it's a really cool question because it turns out that the people who love your products the most actually end up describing themselves in the answer to that question, but using their own words. And so not only does it tell you who loves your products, it al…”
Disclosure
Superhuman raised all of its funding rounds ahead of standard traction benchmarks
“We were never starved of resources. We always raised a round ahead of traction, so we had our seed when you should normally have nothing, we had our A when you should normally have your seed, and so on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Superhuman users process their email twice as fast as Gmail users
“Most of our users actually end up getting through their email about twice as fast as in comparison to Gmail.”
Insight
Modern software product design has essentially become game design
“I think that the bar for product design, whether it's consumer or enterprise, has risen to such a degree that it has essentially become game design. Game design is one of the hardest types of product to create, and I would strongly suggest that any product des…”
Disclosure
Reportive generated only 14 cents in total revenue despite millions of users
“A report of was used by many millions of users, but we made 14 cents of revenue in our entire history as an organization.”
Disclosure
Vohra: Superhuman built a custom keyboard engine to prevent dropped keystrokes
“In Superhuman, we had to build our own keyboard handler to ensure that we never lose keystrokes.”
Assertion Supported
Vohra grew Reportive to tens of thousands of users before hiring co-founders
“I single-handedly got That product to tens of thousands of users, and then use that traction to attract co-founders, to get into Y Combinator, to raise a seed round, and then we were off to the races.”
Insight
High-expectation customers drive product adoption by inspiring others to emulate them
“The highest expectation customer is the most discerning person within your target demographic. They will enjoy your product for its greatest benefit, They'll spread the word, and others will aspire to emulate them because they seem clever, judicious, and insig…”