why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fenton: 2021 Venture Capital Is Overfunding Non-Existent Market Preconditions
“One of the bigger risks that's going on in 2021 is there's a lot of invested capital is going in to market preconditions that either don't exist or are still too early to support the economic development of the businesses.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2096
Fenton: Benchmark Won't Exist in 50 to 75 Years
“Benchmark won't be around in 50 to 75 years, nor will most of the companies we work with”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fenton: Free and open consumer distribution channels evaporated by 2017
“One of the major oxygen supplies For consumers, especially, is free and open distribution, and I think we could say pretty emphatically that that has evaporated in the last five years”
Assertion Supported
Fenton: dotCloud was subscale and unviable due to Amazon competition
“When we were in the business model of dot cloud, that wasn't happening. We were subscale. Amazon was competitive in a way that I think it was clear to some of us that the business was no longer viable.”
Assertion Partly supported
Fenton: Docker achieved developer ubiquity within a year of pivoting
“We would have never imagined that in less than a year, you know, Docker would achieve ubiquity, and now it's a, you know, household name for developers”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fenton: VCs can no longer buy 25% of high-momentum early-stage startups
“I think that the notion that you could buy 25% of a early stage company that has some demonstrable momentum is, is gone.”
Assertion Contradicted
Fenton: New Relic is approaching $1 billion in revenue
“Now New Relic is approaching a billion.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fenton: New Relic's Premortem Risk Was Targeting Low-Budget Developers
“The reasons it wouldn't work, tiny market of Mickey Mouse developers that would never have the money to support a viable economic model.”