The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spending 20% of Developer Salaries on AI Tokens Is Realistic
“But, yeah, so hopefully they get cheaper with time, energy gets cheaper, compute gets cheaper, and then these things get cheaper, but at the current state, absolutely. I think 20% is definitely within reason.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 27:18 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Performance Hinges on SpaceX
“I think if SpaceX performs well, the OpenAI Anthropic IPOs will also go very well. I think if SpaceX performs poorly, then those are going to have a hard time.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 53:04 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
FOMO Will Focus on Native Creators Over Mainstream Celebrities
“So I'm not trying to get LeBron James to trade on FOMO. I want these native creators.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 30:16 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
FOMO Plans to Verticalize All Infrastructure In-House
“Our plan is to kind of verticalize all of our infrastructure and own as much of it as we can in house.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 42:49 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
FOMO to Launch Global Access to Equities and Perpetuals
“But we're soon gonna launch globally access to equities and perpetuals non-US obviously.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 1:49 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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