The Ledger

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why aren't all 42 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Benchmark Lacks the Platform Resources of Multistage Funds
“I think Benchmark doesn't really have as many resources. Like these multistage funds have so many resources for founders.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 40:34 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
FOMO Operates With No Meetings, One-on-Ones, or Hierarchy
“So currently FOMO is extremely horizontal. We don't have meetings, one-on-ones. We don't really have any hierarchy. Everyone is kind of self-reporting.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 22:49 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spending 20% of Developer Salaries on AI Tokens Is Realistic
“But, yeah, so hopefully they get cheaper with time, energy gets cheaper, compute gets cheaper, and then these things get cheaper, but at the current state, absolutely. I think 20% is definitely within reason.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 27:18 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Holds More Cash in Bank Than Total Capital Raised
“Our team is scaling. I mean, we're making money. We have much more money in the bank than we ever raised.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 42:13 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Lack of Consumer Protection Against Scam Coins Destroyed Crypto Sentiment
“And I think what's given such a bad rep is there's no consumer protection here on a lot of these products. So people will buy it. It's so hard to do in the first place, but then they get over the leap of actually doing the thing and then they just lose all the…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 51:29 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Performance Hinges on SpaceX
“I think if SpaceX performs well, the OpenAI Anthropic IPOs will also go very well. I think if SpaceX performs poorly, then those are going to have a hard time.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 53:04 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Financial Super Apps Lack Intentionality Behind Product Bundling
“Whereas all these other apps are just everything super apps, and there's no intentionality behind why all those things have to exist in the same place.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 6:21 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinhood's Horizontal Scaling Blocked Global Expansion
“They grew their business and they were able to saturate the U S market. But they weren't able to go global.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 9:43 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Describing Retail Market Speculation as a Casino Is Derogatory
“I think casino is kind of a derogatory way to view it. I think somewhat, it's somewhat empowering, right?”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 10:40 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Adding LLMs to Existing Design Tools Will Beat AI-Native Platforms
“So with Lovable, it's much harder because they haven't built the human centric software. I think it's much easier to add the LLM on top, especially as it becomes commoditized by all these major models.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 28:54 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
BeReal Lost Momentum by Forcing Daily Activity Without Feedback Loops
“Be Real didn't have the feedback loop. It required people to do something every day, and people don't want to have to do something every single day, and I think as soon as you lose that, you lose momentum very quickly.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 30:48 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Trader Turned $10K Into $2.5M Overnight on FOMO
“This guy, Iceman, who turned, he turned 10 K to two and a half million dollars overnight in one night on FOMO.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 31:40 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Revolut Is Strategically Better Positioned Long-Term Than Robinhood
“I, I'm a Robin Hood user because I'm in the US, so I'm going to say Robin Hood, but I do think Revolut is very well positioned. Honestly, it's really hard. Maybe Revolut. It's a close, it's a, that's a close one.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 46:29 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Overreliance on AI for Writing Degrades Core Skill and Judgment
“I try to use AI for as little of my writing as possible, because I think if I use AI for all my writing, I'm not gonna be able to write anymore, and I'm not gonna be able to remember what is good writing. I'm pretty scared of that to be honest.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 47:14 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Gave Non-Founder Early Employees Founder-Level Equity Packages
“We gave non-founders a percentage of the company that usually founders get.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 15:13 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FOMO Team Took No Salary for First Eight Months of Building
“For the first eight months to building, no one on our team took any pay.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 14:24 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
FOMO's 140-Person Angel Round Was Core to Early Success
“I think that initial round was really core to the success of FOMO.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 3:24 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Crypto Users' Passion Gives FOMO a Major Competitive Advantage
“And this is actually one of the biggest, largest competitive advantages for our company is in the on-chain and crypto industry specifically, the users are very passionate about using the products.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 4:35 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Hyperliquid Pre-IPO Perpetual Prices Converged to Cerebras IPO Valuation
“So what we saw with Cerebris is when the IPO happened, the hyper liquid price started to converge to that price at IPO, right?”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 8:47 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Retail Investors Gain Earlier Access to Private Markets via Perpetuals
“With pre-IPO, with prediction markets, retail gets access to these markets earlier and earlier.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 9:00 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FOMO Currently Has 50,000 to 60,000 Daily Active Users
“We have 50, 60,000 daily active users.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 13:15 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peter Fenton Used FOMO's App Throughout Benchmark's Pitch Meeting
“I remember Peter Fenton was actually on his phone most of it. And I was like, kind of bummed out because I was like, damn, he's not interested. He's focusing on other things. He's doing emails. And I remember as soon as we finished the pitch, the first thing h…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 17:58 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benchmark Did Not Offer the Highest Series A Valuation
“I think it was close, but not exactly the highest.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 18:25 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FOMO Built Its Web App in One Month
“We built this product in three weeks, and this product is basically what entire other apps, their entire product is. You know, we built our web app in one month.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 24:47 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
FOMO Will Focus on Native Creators Over Mainstream Celebrities
“So I'm not trying to get LeBron James to trade on FOMO. I want these native creators.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 30:16 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Trader Turned $300 Into $1.5M in One Month on FOMO
“There's another guy, Remus, he turned, I think it was 300 dollars into one and a half million in a month.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 31:51 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Fred Wilson Has Rare Product Intuition for a VC
“He has a talk about VCs not being focused on the product, but Fred actually has a really good product intuition. I think it's very rare for VC”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 39:20 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Valued at $550M Post-Money in Series B
“The price is five hundred fifty million. Post money.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 41:24 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
FOMO Plans to Verticalize All Infrastructure In-House
“Our plan is to kind of verticalize all of our infrastructure and own as much of it as we can in house.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 42:49 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Social Features in Finance Apps Require Momentum-Driven Design
“But you need to be very intentional about the social graph. And I think that's something that is very momentum based. And as soon as you start losing momentum there, people stop using the app and then the whole thing could kind of unravel.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 46:16 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Does Not Enforce 996 or Set Mandated Working Hours
“I think at FOMO, there's no, we don't put numbers to it. There's no nine, nine, six.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 49:14 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Public Crypto Sentiment Dropped Significantly Despite Regulatory Progress
“I think there's been a lot of positive movement on regulatory clarity but at the same time, I think that sentiment for crypto has also gone down significantly from the general public.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 50:47 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Perpetual Contracts Bypass the Need for SPVs
“Yeah, you don't need an SPV for a perp.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 52:29 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
FOMO to Launch Global Access to Equities and Perpetuals
“But we're soon gonna launch globally access to equities and perpetuals non-US obviously.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 1:49 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Would Build Prediction Markets on Polymarket or Kalshi
“We haven't integrated prediction markets yet, and I'm not sure exactly where it fits in on our roadmap. I think it's very interesting there. I think our first version of the product would be built on something like a poly market in Calci.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 7:02 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO's Series B Was 100% Inbound, Unlike Its Series A
“So for the series B, that was all inbound, but the series A, we actually did run a process because we were like, we should raise money here.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 16:50 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
FOMO Currently Has 17 Total Employees
“We're at 17 total.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 23:07 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Manages 30 to 40 Content Creators Fully In-House
“So we actually have this all in-house. We have these creator managers, they're fully in-house, and we manage a group of 30 to 40 creators.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 33:03 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinhood's Early iOS Deposit Edge Was Caused by Android Bug
“One of the early stories from Robinhood I love is that the deposit amounts from people with iOS were twice the ones from people with Android. And their assumption was just, oh, like people with iPhone just have more money. So they're depositing more money. And…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 38:02 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Wants Ribbit Capital on Cap Table After Prior Discussions
“Ribbit Capital. We spoke with them, yeah. I really like Mickey and the team. They're great.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 47:59 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Unpaid Early Access from Power Users Doubled FOMO Web App Quality
“And when we put out our web app, for example, we did it a week prior and we gave early access. The web app probably became twice as good just in that week. Because we were able to get early feedback from people who are actually passionate. And these people are…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 4:50 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Mandates Enterprise AI Tools to Safeguard Proprietary Code
“Yeah, so we have an internal AI policy to make sure that we're only using enterprise account, that there's not sensitive things being uploaded, etc. I think that's really important. And then within those guidelines, most of our engineers are using cloud code a…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 25:32 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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