The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lovinsky: Product teams will stop writing specs for humans within three years
“Write specs for humans. I hope most people aren't writing specs for humans any longer.”
Lovinsky: Democratized software creation is an enduring shift, not hype
“I think the idea that everyone can build is not a moment in time hype cycle.”
Lovinsky: AI will generate 90% of Superhuman's code within 24 months
“In 24 months, I hope it's like 90%.”
Lovinsky: AI models will achieve continuous learning and self-improvement by 2026
“I think we're going to crack the, like, continuous learning, self-improving. These things, you know, can just be set on a task and given the context and build the memory and are just going to get better on their own for, you know, the majority of tasks that yo…”
Lovinsky: Software TAM will expand as products solve more complex problems
“I mean, I guess like TAM expansion that I see is that the number of problems, the number of things that you're able to solve with software and do for people, it's just going to expand.”
Lovinsky: Continuous background AI inference won't reach general knowledge work by 2026
“Whether it happens widely in knowledge work, By 20, 26, I think is, you know, I'll take a bet with you on that. Certainly for coding. I think in a lot of places we're already there, right? I mean, you have like the Ralph Wiggum stuff that, that popped up over,…”
Lovinsky: AI will cause short-term economic pain before driving widespread abundance
“I think we're going to definitely go through a painful period. Wealth inequality in the US is something that I really am concerned, concerned about because it's higher than it's ever been, higher than the Gilded Age, and, ah, that has a lot of very potentially…”
Lovinsky: AI UI homogenization will make human taste and creativity stand out
“I actually think that this will lead to creativity and certainly like taste standing out more than ever, because I think you're going to have this like flattening where you are going to have a lot of things that just like, oh, you know, here we go. It's this, …”