why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky manages more than 40 direct reports at Revolut
“So I've got 40 plus reports.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Early UK crypto rules caused 99.9% false-positive transfer blocks
“When we received our crypto license, like several years ago in UK, there were certain rules attached to it, which actually caused Kind of 99% false positive. So, for example, a person wants to send money in crypto to another account, and then we will block thi…”
Assertion Supported
Storonsky: Revolut obtained its Mexican banking license ahead of Nubank
“So we got a banking license in Mexico, a head of new bank.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Storonsky: Global banking market will consolidate into a few tech-driven players
“Yeah, I think with time, in five years time, you, you'll see much less number of banks, and there are few global players.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Quantum Light's AI model outperforms 95% of VCs on backtests
“We trained machine learning models on the startups, selecting the best startups. And then the machine learning model actually amazingly outperforms. 95% of VCs out there on, on backtest.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: The retail trading boom is a permanent shift, not a bubble
“So that's why I think, you know, there is a fundamental shift, and it's not gonna go away.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Storonsky: Revolut is ready to build a private bank for wealthy clients
“I think it was too early. Now we have a lot of customers, and then a lot of customers actually have a lot of balances with us. Some of them have, you know, millions on our accounts. So I think it's time to build the product making for people with a lot of liqu…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Storonsky targets growing Revolut to 30-40 million daily active users
“And then hopefully to have I would say, 30 to forty million delective people. So now we're here, we're around ten million delective people.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Tripling top European market share makes Revolut a 4X business
“So right now we have our penetration of market share. I would say it depends from five percent to sometimes 70%. On average, I would say 10%. So if we manage to go from 10% to 30, 40% market share in our top 10 markets, so there will be already probably four X…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Asia will be harder than US to win due to licensing
“Well, because they don't allow your banking licenses, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: U.S. tech companies almost always win European markets
“U.S. Companies, they always win Europe, and I almost never see an exception, so I think it'll be very cool to tick this box.”
Prediction Partly held up
Storonsky: Revolut will launch its full European product suite in the US
“As soon as we get trading license, We'll add all the products that we have on the Revolut for US market.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Revolut can outgrow local fintech incumbents in most markets
“If you add on top of our marketing, I'm pretty sure we can outgrow any local competitors in the majority of countries.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Revolut reinvests 100% of its gross profits into marketing
“So our view is we optimize as much as possible gross profit. So we minimize costs, we optimize revenues on the one side, then we generate profits, and then all the profits we invest in marketing.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Storonsky: Revolut aims to be top two in every market within five years
“So I want to be a global business, and to be either number one or number two in every single country where we're in.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Only five of Revolut's 27 recent product bets hugely succeeded
“So usually, so out of 27 bets that we launched last two and a half, three years, like amazingly worked probably, let's say five. Five, six didn't work at all, and the rest is just, you know, somewhere in the middle.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Winning Revolut products always show growth in months one to three
“Surprisingly, they, like, on month one, month two, month three, they always, you know, go up. So they don't have doubts.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Quantum Light's investment model relies on 25 core statistical signals
“We tested probably like, 300 plus features, right? Then we selected now, like, best 25, which statistically give you a signal, right, whether to invest in a company or not.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Storonsky: Revolut's product teams are small, autonomous units of 8 to 10 people
“Well, basically the way we operate, we have many product teams. So they're usually eight, 10 people. And then the team has all the resources in order to build a product.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Storonsky: Revolut will expand into five to ten countries each year
“So that's why we try to expand, well, not in as many countries, but like with reasonable speed in as many countries as possible, because we've done it before, we have playbooks, we know how to do it, so we slowly add five, 10 countries a year.”