The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Chirls: 75% of 2020-2021 vintage VC funds won't return principal
“If you think about the twenty-twenty-one vintage, I think a one X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your money is, I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile. So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of th…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 21:11 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Non-institutional VCs will win more founders over next decade
“I believe actually the less institutional and banker-like you can look to founders over the next decade, the more likely you are to win. So I think that the most of venture is deeply focused on becoming institutional. It feels more professional. I think the mo…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:04:14 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Asylum Ventures only sells secondary stock when founders are selling
“We will only do that when the founder is selling. At, but I will say when the founder is selling, we almost always do it.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 59:45 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Notation Capital will exclusively back startups based in New York City
“Yeah, so at least today we're on New York, very much a New York City focused fund. The, so, so every single one of our companies that we work with will be primarily based in New York.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 15:01 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
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