The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Green: Software stocks will remain dead money for a quarter or two
“What you're going to see is they're going to take numbers down at a bunch of companies. Give it a quarter or two. Companies will start to then, you know, beat numbers. Then they'll raise the numbers, and the stocks will start to work. But it's probably dead mo…”
Green: Prices for AI infrastructure are going to plummet
“Same thing's gonna happen. Prices are gonna plummet.”
Green: Only three $100B+ companies were created post-iPhone
“You know, since the iPhone came out in 2007, 2006, whatever it was, there's only been three companies built that did not exist before. That were a hundred billion dollar companies. ByteDance, Pindo Doe, and Uber.”
Green: ByteDance North America generates only single-digit percentage of total revenue
“ByteDance North America is a, you know, single digit percentage of revenue.”
Green: ByteDance grows 30% annually with massive profits
“ByteDance Grows at, you know, 30% a year with massive profits.”
Mitchell Green: Current market volatility is amateur hour compared to 2008
“This is nothing like this. This is like amateur hour. This is like nothing. Like, this isn't even volatile compared to like what was going on back then.”
Green: Stock option dilution is significantly higher in Silicon Valley tech firms
“Just look how much, like, stock option dilution there is at a bunch of these big Silicon Valley companies. It's not as bad outside of Silicon Valley, but, like, the dilution is real.”
Mitchell Green: The IPO market is fine and recent performance is strong
“The problem with the IPO market is actually totally fine. If you look at IPO performance of companies, they've actually done pretty well versus opening day prices.”
Green: ByteDance matches Meta in earnings while growing faster
“This is the same size business in terms of earnings grows faster.”
Mitchell Green: Most top US e-commerce companies are traditional retailers
“If you look today at the 10 largest e-commerce companies in the United States, You know, six or seven out of 10 of them are traditional retailers.”
Green: Apple spends far less on AI CapEx than tech peers
“And, you know, like Apple's spending very little right now, you know, and those other three or four companies are spending insane amounts of money.”
Green: Most regulated companies block access to Claude and ChatGPT
“Most big companies that are, like, financially regulated, you can't even go on to Claude or ChatGPT. Like, you can't even, like, get on the system to do work.”
Green: Private equity funds cannot write single $40 billion checks
“Private equity funds don't have enough money to write like, forty billion dollar checks in the companies.”
Green: Insight Partners replicated Summit and TA's cold-calling deal sourcing model
“And all that Insight was doing was replicating what Summit and TA did, which was hire 22 to 24 year old knuckleheads, which my now partner Brian and I were, and pound the phones calling companies all day long.”
Green: VC Fund Count Rose Despite Lengthening Exit Timelines
“It's actually shocking that like, that the number of venture funds over the last like five or seven years has actually increased given that the exits are getting longer, not shorter.”