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The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 26:46 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Green: Investors Will Still Hold Unsold 2012 Stakes in 2030
“At some point, I don't know if it's three years, or five years, or seven years, for sure. People are gonna wake up in 20, in 2030, in 2032, and realize it's, oh my god, they're still all in this stuff from 20 12 and 20 15.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 37:15 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Green: ByteDance will definitely list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
“Hong Kong, for sure. Like, by the way, Tencent's listed in Hong Kong. It's gigantic. Hong Kong, a hundred percent.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:03:56 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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