The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Green: Software stocks will remain dead money for a quarter or two
“What you're going to see is they're going to take numbers down at a bunch of companies. Give it a quarter or two. Companies will start to then, you know, beat numbers. Then they'll raise the numbers, and the stocks will start to work. But it's probably dead mo…”
Green: ByteDance could reach $70B to $100B in earnings within five years
“I think it is possible to see in a few years that this company's doing, you know, 70, eighty, hundred billion of earnings in the next five years.”
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Green: Investors Will Still Hold Unsold 2012 Stakes in 2030
“At some point, I don't know if it's three years, or five years, or seven years, for sure. People are gonna wake up in 20, in 2030, in 2032, and realize it's, oh my god, they're still all in this stuff from 20 12 and 20 15.”
Green: VC liquidity crisis will persist until LPs refuse re-ups
“When LPs go to the biggest venture funds in the world, and private equity funds, and say, we're not investing in your next fund until you get liquidity in these names.”
Green: Prices for AI infrastructure are going to plummet
“Same thing's gonna happen. Prices are gonna plummet.”
Green: ByteDance will be a top global AI company within ten years
“I think they're gonna be one of the foremost AI companies on, on the planet over the next decade.”
Green: Existing software companies will not be wiped out by AI
“Are all of our software companies going to be completely disrupted and all of them go away? And like, I don't know, like I'm taking a stand that it's they're not. But like, I guess I could be totally wrong.”
Mitchell Green: Companies will retrain workers displaced by AI
“A lot of these, like, companies will retrain people. They'll do different things. It's a, it's remarkable throughout history. There's been, like, lots of technological disruption over the last hundred years, and, like, people find new things.”
Green: Lead Edge rejects founders who refuse to ever go public
“Listen, if your plan is to try to stay private forever, you're just not for us. Like, we just don't want to invest in you.”
Green: ByteDance will definitely list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
“Hong Kong, for sure. Like, by the way, Tencent's listed in Hong Kong. It's gigantic. Hong Kong, a hundred percent.”
Green: Opportunistic 'tourist' investors will eventually be washed out of venture capital
“A hundred percent. When? I don't know. It might be like a slow You know, it might be like a slow hole in the canoe, but eventually, yes, they will, yes, a hundred percent.”
Mitchell Green: AI's biggest disruption will be in manufacturing and healthcare
“I actually think the biggest disruption you're gonna see is in, like, manufacturing, is in, like, healthcare, is in you know, think about, like, the companies that can figure out how to get drugs to market much faster than anybody else. Like, I think AI could …”
Green: More tech companies will launch major stock buyback programs
“I would suspect over the next, you will, as our names come through, you know, you will see more things like sales, like Salesforce, people put in place big buyback programs to start buying back stock here. I think you'll see it.”
Mitchell Green: US will face major power infrastructure bottlenecks for AI
“We, in the US, we are gonna run into major issues around power.”