The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mitchell Green: 50% to 60% of VCs add negative value
“I think 50% of people in the venture business should not actually be in the business. There's too much money and there's like too many tourists. 50, 60% of people in this industry that actually probably add negative value to companies.”
Mitchell Green: $2B valuations for AI spinout ideas are complete lunacy
“People that spin out of Like, Anthropic or OpenAI and raise money at, like, two billion dollars for a freaking idea. Like, there's nothing more than an idea and a napkin. To us, that seems complete lunacy.”
Mitchell Green: Multi-billion VC funds are insane and require hitting next Google
“I think it's insane. I think these funds are way too, and they, just do the math, the fund math on like how, they're clearly, you have to have the next open, you have to have the next Google, effectively, or the math doesn't work, I don't think.”
Green: AI infrastructure investing today mirrors website investing in 1997
“I think investing in AI infrastructure today is like investing in websites in 1997.”
Green: The idea of a single-person AI company is comical
“The idea of a single-person AI company I think is, like, comical at best.”
Green: Expecting consistent 3x net VC funds is a fallacy
“Please tell me where all these like three X net funds are all run. It's a complete fallacy.”
Green: MicroStrategy's strategy of issuing debt for crypto is a house of cards
“The idea, like, from what I understand, microstrategy is effectively issuing debt to buy, to go in the market and buy more To go to buy more like crypto and they just keep doing it. But if that reverses, eventually got paid on the debt. I don't know. It just s…”
Green: The biggest internet innovations of the last decade came from China
“Look, if you look at the internet, the biggest innovation in internet is usually over the last decade or 15 years to come out of China.”
Green: Venture capital was facing a rude awakening before AI emerged
“I think the venture industry was about to be in for a rude awakening, and then AI showed up.”
Green: Tech investors learned nothing from the 2020-2021 bubble
“People didn't learn a damn thing from 20 and 21. It's, like, shocking.”
Green: Venture capital GPs are complacent about returning LP capital
“There's just a lot of, like, I think a lot of people in this industry are very complacent. All of us as GPs, Need to do a better job getting money back to LPs and figuring out how to do it.”
Green: TA Associates generated the best tech returns over 30-40 years
“The firm that I think has generated the best returns in the tech investing world over the last 3040 years, and it's become more a buyout fund, but they used to do tons of minorities, TA Associates.”
Green: Supports banning social media for teenagers under 16
“Yes, I think we should. I think it needs to be way highly regulated.”
Mitchell Green: Believing software incumbents will disappear is a fool's errand
“These companies aren't going anywhere. Like, the incumbents have distribution, Data and balance sheets. You know, it's a fool's errand to think all these companies are going to go away.”
Mitchell Green: Mark Zuckerberg is right to bet big on AI spending
“Mark Zuckerberg deserves to go for it. Like, he's, it's his business. He built the damn business. Like, I don't think you really have much to say to be like, oh, don't bet on the guy. And by the way, he kind of has to because his competitors are doing the same…”
Green: Markets irrationally heed random online research over top tech leaders
“It's incredible, like, why don't, it's amazing that people are listening to some random research firm versus listening to people like Stan Druckenmiller, Howard Marks, Ken Griffin, Steve Cohen, like, Mark Benioff, people like Mark Zuckerberg you know, Jensen W…”
Green: Sequoia, Benchmark, and Index succeed because they excel at recruiting
“I truly think that's why Sequoia and Benchmark are great and Index are great because they help founders and entrepreneurs recruit amazing talent and people want to work for those funds portfolio companies.”
Green: Private tech valuations are irrational compared to public market comps
“I mean, it's kind of silly. It's like, do these private market investors look at the public markets?”
Green: $5B–$10B IPOs remain fully viable despite growth of ETFs
“In the world where, like, ETFs and passives have become huge and the number of fundamental investors is, like, shrinking, I don't think you want to be a two to, ideally, you don't want to be, like, a two to three billion dollar company, but I don't think there…”
Green: Sub-$2B IPOs offer strong 10-year holding opportunities
“I think when you get, like, sub a billion or two billion, it's, like, it's kind of just, like, a pain in the ass to be a public company investor, but you can do it. Like, who says you can't do it? I actually, we wish probably more would. Why? Because they'd be…”
Green: Most VC funds excel at investing but struggle with selling
“We think there's a lot of really good funds that are really good at investing. We think there's a lot of people that are not very good at selling.”
Green: The West completely underestimates China's capabilities in AI
“A hundred percent. I just have seen how hard people in China work at some of these tech companies.”
Green: Crypto resembles the tulip craze due to a lack of commercial utility
“Not bearish on crypto, but, like, I think it reminds me a little bit of the tulip craze that you can't actually use crypto to go buy, like, when you could, if I could go buy a Tesla with crypto, it'd be amazing. If I could go to Amazon and use Bitcoin, it'd be…”