The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schroepfer: Cheap clean energy access is humanity's primary rate limiter
“Availability of cheap, clean energy is probably the biggest rate limiter to human progress right now.”
Schroepfer: Meta's early AI lab built the skills that powered Llama
“We built an AI lab at Meta and it was kind of like, huh, this AI thing is going to be pretty big. Let's like start building the skill set. And that's why you see Meta doing Lama now and a bunch of other things, because they, we had all the people, we had all t…”
Schroepfer: Abundant clean energy is achievable within a decade
“I don't think in the next few years we will have, like, unlimited clean energy. I think in the next decade we have a really good shot at it.”
Schroepfer: Commercial nuclear fusion power will arrive in the 2030s
“I think we got a couple credible shots on goal on fusion. And I'm like, that shows up in the 20 thirties.”
Schroepfer: Self-driving cars will be ubiquitous in 10 to 15 years
“I think self-driving cars went through a huge boom, and then like, now everyone thinks they suck, and like, they kind of miss that they actually work now, and so like, I think in 1015 years, it's going to be like, whoa, you drive your car? That's weird. I thin…”
Schroepfer: Climate change is a $10 trillion economic problem
“As I learn more about climate, I'm like, this is a 10 trillion dollar problem.”
Schroepfer: Meta's 2013 thesis predicted computing moving to AR, VR, AI
“Our analysis was, no, it's gonna both be more integrated into my real world, you know, smart glasses and immersive in VR, and it's gonna be smarter. It's gonna be AI.”
Schroepfer: China installed more solar in 2023 than total US capacity
“China last year installed more solar in 20, 23 than exists in the United States.”
Schroepfer: Commonwealth Fusion set world record for superconducting electromagnets
“And they set the world record for most powerful electromagnets using superconductors.”
Schroepfer: US National Ignition Facility achieved net energy gain in fusion
“We've done that. We know it works. It releases more energy out than we threw at it.”
Schroepfer: Gas vehicles will feel obsolete within 10 to 15 years
“So, like, I think in a decade, you're gonna wander around and be like, That gas car, like, look at that. It's like a Model T. It's like, wow, that's weird. I can't believe we used to do that. Like, that's kind of what you're going to do. Maybe not in 10, maybe…”
Schroepfer: Climate tech startup Mill sold out 10,000 units at $1,000 each
“Like mill is sold out the first run of 10,000 units. They sold them for a thousand bucks each.”
Schroepfer: Hardware moats require tens to hundreds of millions in capital
“I mean, it depends on the company and what they're doing, but it's, you know, tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. It's not millions of dollars.”
Schroepfer: Avoid investing in startups reliant on future legislative changes
“If your business is premised on some future law being passed, then, like, you know, that's a binary outcome that is completely outside of your control, and unless I have some information that makes me bullish that that's gonna happen, we're probably not gonna …”
Schroepfer: Solar is already the cheapest global energy source by a large margin
“In many places around the world, like solar is the cheapest form of power generation by a large margin.”