The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Krieger: AI Startups Need Domain Knowledge and Proprietary Data for Long-Term Value
“My sense of where it ends up being most valuable to exist is places where you have some differentiated go to market, some differentiated knowledge of some particular industry or some special data that only you have access to ideally two or even three of those …”
Krieger: Selling pure API token access is a terminal failure mode
“I think the more you are just, like, maybe it's good inverting that all to see, like, what the failure mode looks like. I think it is resting on your laurels or not retaining your best people. Just believing that making the models incrementally better in every…”
Krieger: Creating multi-step task environments is the main AI blocker
“Figuring out how we better either break that down into component parts, which is probably part of the story, but also think about it holistically is the biggest blocker to at least one slice of progress, which is how do models go from being extremely good at e…”
Krieger: AI Companies Cannot Build Moats Without First-Party Products
“And I think that there's, you'll, you'll miss out and not have enough of a durable moat if you're not equally investing or maybe even investing even more on the first party side of things.”
Krieger: Application startups can iterate faster than major AI labs
“Building applications on top of these models becomes, it is a lot easier, and you can go from zero to one, and you can be more nimble than even these labs that are gonna all have, like, you know, tens or hundreds of millions of users, and you have to move slow…”
Krieger: AI product design must build for model capabilities 3 months out
“The very thing about AI and product design is you have to dance this very delicate dance of showing the future and dreaming up what the models are currently capable at their edges, you know, cause you want to design for where they'll be, gosh, three months fro…”
Krieger: AI startups can overpromise more than incumbents due to forgiving early adopters
“And now if you're a startup, you can do a little bit more of the over promising because people are kicking your tires, the early adopters, they have a little bit more of that. Sort of willingness to engage.”
Krieger: Current AI Product Design Suffers From Leaky Abstractions
“And the reality is the current state of most AI product design is an extraordinarily leaky abstraction.”
Krieger: AI products differentiate on model personality, scaffolding, and vibes
“I don't know what that fake formula is for AI products yet, but I think it's some version of that where there's like model model personality is probably one of them. There's likely something around the scaffolding prescriptiveness of the product that you're wo…”
Krieger: AI breakthroughs benefit pre-existing builders over new entrants
“Often the companies that do benefit from those model generation shifts are not the ones that suddenly start that day. Like, gosh, you know, it sounds like cloud three, seven Sonic can do that. It's the ones that have been beating against the wall.”
Krieger: AI customers won't switch models overnight due to custom integrations
“Over time, you start learning that, people don't just deploy models. They're doing like fine tunes or they're deploying models. Plus they've done a lot of really bespoke work to make that model be great for that use case. It's not a thing that's going to switc…”
Krieger: Social networks succeed through format, audience, and vibes
“Social networks are made of format, or formats that you have in your product, audience, and vibes.”
Krieger: AI benchmark evals do not indicate real-world model performance
“Evals are really useful for hill climbing and for internal research, but they don't tell the story of like, is the model going to be excellent at what it needs to be excellent or deployed for, or even if it is excellent at that thing, is it only excellent at t…”
Mike Krieger: AI Model Privacy Discernment Is Underappreciated and Under-Researched
“And I think models, this is very underappreciated and probably under-researched as well from like a model capabilities perspective because models fundamentally want to be helpful. And that is not always what you want them to be. And there's a safety case for t…”
Krieger: Unresolved initial disagreements inevitably destroy founder partnerships
“I've definitely seen that, you know, having, we've done some angel investing and I've seen partnerships go south where there was some initial disagreement It either got lightly talked about, never fully resolved, or never talked about, and then it inevitably b…”