why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jones predicts traditional LPs will move capital into crypto by late 2017
“And I believe that we're seeing, within months, this third phase of wealth moving into crypto, which will be traditional LPs and investors finding managers they trust, like us, to basically move large amounts of exposure into crypto. And that will, you know, c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jones: Most ICOs will fail, but surviving tokens will be extremely valuable
“I don't think it's going away. I certainly believe there will be tons of these ICOs that will fail, and their token value may also fail, but I think there'll also be winners, and those winners will be really valuable.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jones: Tokenization and ICOs will fundamentally change early-stage venture capital
“It is going to change venture. I mean, it has changed venture. It's just, if I look at my investing activities over the last six months since we've been participating in this, it's changed the way I think about equity and the way I think about early stage comp…”
Prediction Held up
Jones predicts Bitcoin's price will exceed $4,000 by August 2018
“I'm confident it will be above.”
Prediction Held up
Science Blockchain token holders directly receive tokens from incubated startups
“If you're a qualified US investor, and you happen to own or buy one of our tokens, and you have it then sitting in your, you know, Ethereum qualified wallet, what that means is over time, as we incubate businesses, and if those businesses also run their own to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jones: A Filecoin ICO failure will not destroy the broader crypto market
“I don't believe in that binary nature. I think that the ICO slash irrevocable token transfer vehicle that we're witnessing right now has applicability in lots of areas... If they aren't successful, I don't believe that will pull down. I mean, it may have a fin…”
Assertion Partly supported
Jones: 80% to 90% of ICO capital originates outside the US
“80 to 90% of these ICOs are raising more capital internationally than they are in the U.S.”
Assertion Contradicted
Jones: Daily utility ICOs in 2017 raise between $10M and $500M
“There is basically a giant token sale, at least one happening every single day, to the tunes of Ten million dollars up to five hundred million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Jones: 65 registered hedge funds are raising for crypto allocations in 2017
“In fact, I believe this week there was an article released that showed there were 65 pending registered hedge funds that were in the process of completing their raises to move dollars into the crypto market,”
Disclosure
Jones: Core crypto developer discourse occurs in hard-to-find private Telegram groups
“I'm very engaged on Telegram, and there's a ton of very hard-to-find groups where the miners and the core blockchain developers and Bitcoin enthusiasts share ideas. I spent a lot of time in those Telegram groups.”
Insight
Science Inc. focuses on startups that can scale through paid media
“Unlike maybe, you know, certain investors or venture groups where they invest in a whole wide variety of different industries, I look for things that we expressly have in, you know, internal information on how to build. So for me, that typically means companie…”
Insight
Science Inc. seeks young, feedback-receptive startup founders
“We need incredible CEOs and entrepreneurs that are both, you know, young and eager enough to want to jump into starting a new company, but also receiving enough that they'll take constructive feedback and hopefully guidance provided by our team.”
Insight
Science Inc. requires clear downstream funding and M&A pathways before incubating
“We also look for businesses where we have, you know, direct connections with the funding groups and in the M&A environment. So I prefer businesses where if they're doing really, really well, I know who to go to get them financed. And I know who to go to when t…”
Insight
Inspirational leadership is essential to offset below-market startup compensation
“You're typically kind of underpaying the market. You've got to have leadership that inspires people that makes the one, you know, that makes the best people want to work with those individuals.”
Insight
Startup incubators should stay secondary to portfolio CEOs and their teams
“Science fundamentally needs to fall into the background. The stars in our building are the CEOs and the teams that run these great operational businesses. And my team and any cultural, you know, thesis that, that science brings to it really needs to be, you kn…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MySpace rebuild team accomplished with 200 engineers what previously took 2,000
“Being able to do with a 200 person tech team what previously they had done with a 2000 person tech team”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Communicating the studio model to investors is Science Inc.'s greatest challenge
“But when you're launching a, an incubator or a studio that, in essence, holds equity in various degrees of a whole portfolio of different companies, it's a very different entity. So honestly, one of the most challenging parts has been Conveying the strategy an…”
Disclosure
Science Inc. operates crypto mines and holds cryptocurrency long-term
“We originally had set up mines, we had invested in a few companies, and we're kind of long-term holders of crypto.”
Assertion Supported
Jones: Blockchain Capital pioneered legally compliant tokenized venture funds
“Where blockchain capital raised a portion of their venture fund through a token sale. And they were one of the first groups that figured out the legal process of setting this up and tokenizing their investment vehicle.”
Assertion Supported
Jones: 11 crypto tokens exceed $1 billion valuations in August 2017
“There's 11 tokens now that have greater than a billion dollar value with a substantial amount of daily circulating liquidity within the token sale marketplaces.”
Opinion
Venture capital and proximity to Silicon Valley drive LA tech growth
“Well, listen, I think that, you know, whether you know, what drives the growth is venture capital, and we're fortunate in that we are a close proximity to Silicon Valley.”