why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Kim predicts long-term seed startup mortality rate will be 25% to 30%
“And, you know, I do think that the longer term sort of steady state mortality rate is probably 25% to 30%, but I don't think it's 80%, but we'll see.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim predicts only 1-2 of Cendana's 18 funds will reach Sequoia status
“I would say that to be realistic, maybe one or two out of You know, the 18 plus funds that we work with may ultimately emerge in that category”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kim: Institutional LPs have already exhausted their 2016 annual capital budgets
“A lot of them did, and so now institutional LPs are largely out of capital for the year. A number of LPs I know have already spent their budget or have already allocated their budget to these re-ups, and it's also not just in the U.S. There are a lot of re-ups…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim predicts SoftTech VC will build a multi-generational platform like Greylock
“And if you look at the absolute top tier VC funds, they've done a phenomenal job of generational shift, and, you know, the older generation handing off to the younger generation, certainly firms like Greylock, have transformed themselves, and I think that is t…”
Prediction Held up
Kim: Cendana Capital has zero interest in becoming a multi-billion dollar fund
“So we have zero interest in becoming a multi-billion dollar asset gatherer and living off our fees and having swanky offices.”
Assertion Supported
Kim: US seed rounds in 2016 typically range from $1M to $2M
“The composition of a seed round, which today is about one to two million in the U S sometimes larger as large as three million.”