The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eisenberg: Companies will build custom software with AI instead of buying SaaS
“I think you'll see a lot of companies build their own software. Or you have tools that create kind of unique business processes software for a lot of these companies. I don't know if it's tomorrow or in five years, but I think there'll be more of that.”
Eisenberg predicts more private equity software investments will see Pluralsight-style zeroes
“I'm not concerned. I'm certain. It's happening.”
Eisenberg: VC funds with only one strong partner will fail first
“I think the first style of funds that goes out of businesses is funds where there's three, four or five partners and only one of them is good. And then that person gets tired of holding everybody on their shoulders, and they leave and set their own thing up, a…”
Eisenberg: Financial reality dictates most AI foundation model companies will fail
“I don't buy that five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 of these are going to work. It's just not true. Financially, it's not true.”
Eisenberg: Users will rely on AI agents over direct publisher websites
“As you kind of play this forward, you're going to see a whole series of agents. Like I'm not going to go to the New York times.com to read it. I'm going to go to my AI screen and say, fetch me the articles that interest me from the New York times today.”
Eisenberg: Only one or two foundation model startups will prove profitable
“There is, there are one or two companies. In there that will make their venture investors a lot of money and the rest of them will cost their LPs and GPs a lot of money.”
Eisenberg: Incumbents will find AI catch-up harder than internet adoption
“And I think what's going to be shocking about this, that's not like the internet, is it's going to be harder for legacy companies to catch up to AI companies, which is different from the internet.”
Eisenberg: AI will disrupt horizontal SaaS processes
“I think in general, horizontal SaaS processes are going to be disrupted by AI.”
Eisenberg: Strict AI regulation will further erode Europe's economic competitiveness
“I think that is going to set Europe back in competitiveness more than it's already been set back in competitiveness over the last 20 years.”
Eisenberg: US, China, and Israel will lead AI over Europe due to lower regulation
“And so when you look at kind of the key markets for AI development, where the US is first and China is second and Israel is third I think those are likely to be less regulated than most, and certainly than Europe, and so these, those will be advantaged economi…”
Eisenberg: Investors will lose a lot of money chasing defense tech
“And so people will lose a lot of money chasing the new, new thing, which today happens to be defense in addition to AI.”
Eisenberg: A generation of ZERP-era venture funds will die
“A whole good generation of people grow up during ZERP. And, you know, now reality is biting. And so, yeah, of course.”
Eisenberg Predicts Venture Investment In Israel Will Surge Due To Resilience
“If you ask me what comes next in the next chapter of the State of Israel, I think I do know, and the Israeli tech community, and that is much more investment is going to flow here because people want to invest in resilient societies in the 21st century, as it'…”
Eisenberg: Massive venture capital inflows will result in scarce investor returns
“There's no capital scarcity, by the way, but there could be, and this will take longer to play out, a scarcity of returns because of all that capital that's come in.”
Eisenberg: Market bust will reallocate tech talent but won't reduce salaries
“A bust in the past and maybe now would reallocate some of that talent around. I actually don't think it would reduce the cost of it for what it's worth, given how scarce the talent is, but I think it could reallocate it to better places.”
Eisenberg: Outcome-based pricing will rapidly enter the software market
“And I think the consultants like Accenture and McKinsey are the leading edge of this. But I think it's going to come into software very, very quickly.”
Eisenberg: Anduril will scale defense contracting much faster than Palantir
“Palantir took 20 years to crack this code. Andrew will crack it much faster because of Palantir.”
Eisenberg: Synthetic biology is shifting to a low-cost 'labless' model
“ZERP built out a huge amount of biological infrastructure. And so now you can just rent labs for cheap. And so I think we're moving to a labless model where you do kind of AI, you know, in your office, and then send out things for testing to labs and maybe eve…”
Eisenberg: Israel Will Become a Garden of Eden for Tech and Humanity
“This is going to become a Garden of Eden for technology and humanity and civic resilience, and how the world becomes a much better place. A Garden of Eden. That's what it's going to become, and it's going to be hard before it's better. I just want to say that.…”
Eisenberg: Investors will lose money in AI, but foundational companies will emerge
“So a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. During this, like a lot of money. And some foundational companies and technologies will be built.”