The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dearing: Founder exceptionalism is independent of pedigree or brand-name experience
“That personal exceptionalism, that sense that they are special, that they are destined for really unique outcomes relative to their peer group, I think that shows up early in somebody's life. And it's independent, quite independent of pedigree or brand name wo…”
Dearing: Perfect market timing is impossible, making survival a management challenge
“I would say, though, that if you start with the premise that timing is always slightly wrong, I mean, listen, what are the odds that we invent something, we productize it, and we turn it into a company at exactly the right moment? It's practically impossible. …”
Dearing: Corporate capital allocation fails because CEOs lack true pricing signals
“One of the biggest problems with internal capital allocation inside a company is, Very rarely do CEOs have access to true opportunity cost-based prices. And the market's really good at that. The market's really good at saying, well, if you're going to use my f…”
Dearing: Executives are paid for judgment, not running A/B tests
“And listen, this is what we pay people for is to make judgments. We don't pay people to run AB tests. We don't pay people to do boil the ocean analytics on what is the quote right answer. We pay people for their judgment.”
Dearing: Great founders subject gut intuition to market discipline
“Every human is walking around with two processors running in parallel. One processor is that gut instinct, that intuitive perception of the world, and the other is the analytic, more rational, and reasonable one. Now, the gut perception of how the world works …”
Dearing: Daily software deployments and rapid prototyping are necessary founder markers
“How fast do they release prototypes? How many days a week do they push new software to production? How quickly do they start sketching an idea versus just talking about it in very macro terms? And how quickly does a pen go to paper? Those are markers of people…”
Dearing: Fundamental general management principles have not changed since 1855
“So that checklist of five things is the same today as it was in 1855 when he first wrote that treatise.”
Dearing: Valuation is a VC's primary tool for risk management
“Pricing is the way that we manage our risk. It's the primary tool I have to manage my own risk in the situation. And so as my risk goes up, my price should go down and vice versa.”
Dearing: Initial deal picking drives fund returns, not capital recycling
“I don't consider it a bulk part of the strategy because let's be honest, my numbers call it on a fund are driven by my initial investment picking. So picking is the primary thing I do. If I pick really well, I should generate great multiples and liquidity for …”