The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dearing: Convertible debt seed market is terribly toxic and undisciplined
“On the convertible debt side of the market, I think it's terribly toxic and about as undisciplined as it could possibly be.”
Dearing: It is a pathetic indictment that basic management makes founders exceptional
“And I also think this checklist of five things that McCallum gave us, if they are good at those five things, they are in the Pathetic indictment of the state of general management that it's that easy to be exceptional, but it really is.”
Dearing: Founder exceptionalism is independent of pedigree or brand-name experience
“That personal exceptionalism, that sense that they are special, that they are destined for really unique outcomes relative to their peer group, I think that shows up early in somebody's life. And it's independent, quite independent of pedigree or brand name wo…”
Dearing: Perfect market timing is impossible, making survival a management challenge
“I would say, though, that if you start with the premise that timing is always slightly wrong, I mean, listen, what are the odds that we invent something, we productize it, and we turn it into a company at exactly the right moment? It's practically impossible. …”
Dearing: Corporate capital allocation fails because CEOs lack true pricing signals
“One of the biggest problems with internal capital allocation inside a company is, Very rarely do CEOs have access to true opportunity cost-based prices. And the market's really good at that. The market's really good at saying, well, if you're going to use my f…”
Dearing: Executives are paid for judgment, not running A/B tests
“And listen, this is what we pay people for is to make judgments. We don't pay people to run AB tests. We don't pay people to do boil the ocean analytics on what is the quote right answer. We pay people for their judgment.”
Dearing: Great founders subject gut intuition to market discipline
“Every human is walking around with two processors running in parallel. One processor is that gut instinct, that intuitive perception of the world, and the other is the analytic, more rational, and reasonable one. Now, the gut perception of how the world works …”
Dearing: Daily software deployments and rapid prototyping are necessary founder markers
“How fast do they release prototypes? How many days a week do they push new software to production? How quickly do they start sketching an idea versus just talking about it in very macro terms? And how quickly does a pen go to paper? Those are markers of people…”
Dearing: Fundamental general management principles have not changed since 1855
“So that checklist of five things is the same today as it was in 1855 when he first wrote that treatise.”
Dearing: Valuation is a VC's primary tool for risk management
“Pricing is the way that we manage our risk. It's the primary tool I have to manage my own risk in the situation. And so as my risk goes up, my price should go down and vice versa.”
Dearing: Seed equity market rounds are priced reasonably
“So I would say on the equity side of the market, I believe for the most part, companies are priced reasonably.”
Dearing: Harrison Metal currently reserves $1.50 per $1 initially invested
“Over time, the way I've funded the reserves pool is varied between taking that ratio all the way up to two to one, back down to now I reserve about a buck 50 for every initial dollar.”
Dearing: Harrison Metal cut reserves over values violations only twice in 100+ deals
“I've rarely come into a situation where I've completely pulled out. I mean, it has happened, but usually for real values violations, you know, dishonesty, and thank God that's only happened, like, you know, two times out of more than a hundred cases.”
Dearing: Initial deal picking drives fund returns, not capital recycling
“I don't consider it a bulk part of the strategy because let's be honest, my numbers call it on a fund are driven by my initial investment picking. So picking is the primary thing I do. If I pick really well, I should generate great multiples and liquidity for …”