The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ocko: Non-AGI can unemploy 30% of G20 workers within 10 years
“Well, first I'll say you don't need AGI to unemploy 30% of all Pink collar and white collar workers in the G-Twenty within the next 10 years.”
Segregating venture funds by size destroys signal quality, says Matt Ocko
“I sincerely believe, and there's a large but quiet group of other experienced VCs with successful track records that who also believe that the strict segregation of funds by size has an information destroying or signal reducing aspect.”
Early-stage VCs bias investments to please late-stage investors, says Matt Ocko
“Meanwhile, the early stage investor Because they have to consider this capital formation risk is at best unconsciously and at worst very consciously biasing the nature of the investments that they pick towards what is popular or acceptable or soothing to the t…”
LPs uncomfortable with 15-to-20-year lifecycles shouldn't invest in early-stage VC
“I think that some LPs who over time are uncomfortable with Perhaps a 15 year, or some of my VC colleagues have quietly mentioned, maybe the equivalent of a 20 year long bond in venture. You know, those LPs may not be the right ones to go forward in the early s…”
Ocko: Self-driving trucks could displace 4 million US workers
“So with self-driving trucks, they're you're talking about potentially vastly reducing, if not completely disemploying, I guess to coin a term, three or four million of the last non-college educated middle class people in the United States, and quite a large si…”
Ocko: First entity controlling semi-AGI gains imperceptible advantage over competitors
“Whoever gets that AI first, not only has a huge advantage, but an advantage that is beyond the reach of human intellect to perceive until they have quote unquote lost the game.”
Ocko: High-growth startup founders cannot sleep eight hours a night
“Ordinary, ordinary humans like us can't respond to the demands of a truly successful startup, one that has this hard, sharp arc of takeoff and sleep eight hours and cook our own organic breakfast and get in a brisk six mile walk and then write a little bit of …”
Data Collective passed on Gusto follow-ons because it wasn't deep tech
“We didn't follow on. We didn't raise our hand to be the big dog in successive rounds. And it had nothing to do with the quality of the company. And people trust us when we explain that because the company was a wonderfully engineered, great SAS company deliver…”
Ordinary founders cannot build high-growth startups while sleeping eight hours
“Ordinary, ordinary humans like us can't respond to the demands of a truly successful startup. One that has this hard, sharp arc of takeoff and sleep eight hours and cook our own organic breakfast and get in a brisk Six mile walk and then write a little bit of …”
Ocko: AI adjudication surrenders human judgment to opaque black boxes
“Likewise, as AI software begins to sort of perform idiot savant roles inside courts and legal systems and insurance companies in mainstream companies to adjudicate whether someone is employable, you have surrendered what used to be human decisions to a black b…”
Ocko: Corporations will not hire AI-displaced workers with Udacity degrees
“The near-term likelihood that global corporations or even startups, whatever engine of economic growth you want to point to, are going to accept a Udacity degree from an unemployed welder or an unemployed truck driver whose job was just taken by a truck driver…”
Ocko: AI will vastly reduce the 10,000 hours required for mastery
“The people who are creative or have an interesting idea may find themselves lifted up by even this simpler AI so that the, you know, 10,000 hours required today to become an expert in something can be vastly reduced.”
Early-stage investors evaluate follow-on funding better than late-stage VCs
“In a perverse sense, their adjudication of whether that company deserves another three million or five million or seven million dollars is at least as good, if not better, than the next guy up the line, especially if that next guy up the line is by necessity D…”
Data Collective's Opportunity Fund is contractually forbidden from outside investments
“Our opportunity fund is in fact contractually prohibited from chasing deals outside of our portfolio.”
Planet Labs is the world's second or third largest space power
“Planet Labs is delivering massive informatics advantage to its customers by virtue of having become the second or third largest space power in the world measured in satellites.”
Data Collective passes on standard SaaS deals favored by Jason Lemkin
“We regretfully either say no up front or don't follow on in the kind of companies that somebody like Jason Lempton is going to make a fortune in.”
Data Collective's early portfolio targeted $2B in 2016 revenue and bookings
“In aggregate in just a couple of our early stage funds are companies have hard contracted gap bookings and or fully recognized gap revenue approaching what should be about two billion dollars in 2016.”
Data Collective avoided micro-VC fund size to write larger initial checks
“We made a very conscious decision from the very beginning of our first institutional fund not to be a micro VC, not to be in the 30 to fifty million dollar fund size category, because if you disagree with conventional wisdom about a series A and you want to wr…”
Three Scan maps tissue 1,000x faster than human pathologists
“So follow on, three scan, because they are transforming both drug development and medicine by delivering a three D map From the subcellular level all the way up to complete organ systems a thousand times faster and with essentially infinitely greater accuracy …”
Tradeshift serves 1M businesses, dwarfing competitor Ariba's footprint
“They have almost a million discrete companies in a 140 countries worldwide from tiny companies in China up to a huge chunk of the fortune 100 addicted to their stuff. And they dwarf the footprint of Ariba and any other, you know, would be competitor.”