why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lerner: PayPal wasted hundreds of millions on unused marketing and products
“They spent hundreds of millions of dollars on marketing campaigns, building products that, frankly, nobody ever used”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lerner: PayPal's best growth hires had zero marketing or product background
“The best, I'll say categorically, the best growth people I hired and managed in my time at PayPal had no marketing experience, had no product experience at all.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lerner: Prospects will become immune to AI outbound outreach within a year
“They will become a nerd to that in a year, but at the moment, the window's kind of still open.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lerner: Every great growth leader started in functional roles like SEO
“Cause every one of these great growth people started as an SEO person or an analyst or a content marketer. And just learned and grew, or an engineer, and just learned and grew very quickly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lerner: AI models perform design and copy better than 90% of people
“AI models can now do design and copy better than 90% of people.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lerner: Top European tech talent will leave for founder-friendly environments
“I mean, Europe produces incredible talent, but what you see is a lot of the best talent in Europe is going to move to an environment that's more friendly to startups in terms of regulatory, in terms of funding, in terms of pools of labor, in terms of tax rates…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lerner: Most startups track signups but ignore actual customer value
“Most people track Signups and conversions for their paid stuff, but they don't look at customer value.”
Assertion Supported
Major tech companies scaled without traditional sales or marketing
“There's a bunch of companies like PayPal, Airbnb, Facebook, Hotmail, Twitter, LinkedIn, Dropbox, WhatsApp, Quora, Reddit. A bunch of companies who've gotten really big, really fast, without doing any traditional sales or marketing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only two of 150 incoming 500 Startups companies properly tracked metrics
“Across the entire team at 500, we can maybe think of two companies who came in and they had the right metrics and they were tracking them properly.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sean Ellis coined the term 'growth hacker' while at Dropbox
“Sean Ellis invented the term when he worked at Dropbox”
Assertion Partly supported
Lerner: Amazon's original 1996 North Star metric was repeat purchases
“Amazon's North Star from 1996 was repeat purchases.”
Assertion Supported
500 Startups prefers hiring operators over finance and venture backgrounds
“At 500 startups, we tend to hire people who've got operating backgrounds rather than out of finance or venture.”