The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Fitzpatrick: External AI builds are twice as effective as internal builds
“You've seen Gartner saying 40% of enterprise projects will likely be canceled by 2027, and I think the reason for that is externally driven builds are two X as effective as internal team builds.”
Fitzpatrick: Enterprise AI deployment will take a decade, not two years
“I think that whole process is in the first inning in the enterprise. I think it's going to take a decade, not two years.”
Fitzpatrick: Out-of-the-box AI agents achieve only 33% accuracy on multi-turn workflows
“Salesforce AI research released this report that if you take if you test a lot of the out of the box agents on single-term and multi-term workflows, they're about 58% accurate on single-term and 33% accurate on multi-term workflows, which means they don't real…”
Fitzpatrick: Software industry will shift from standardized SaaS to hyper-personalized AI
“That is my view on where, where this whole industry goes, is you move from SaaS, out-of-the-box SaaS, to much more hyper-personalization using the specific data of an individual customer”
Fitzpatrick: Human feedback in AI training will remain essential for 10 years
“For a multi-stage reasoning test that requires a PhD in multi-different languages, and, like, human feedback is going to be important in that for the next decade.”
Fitzpatrick: AWS report shows 70% of AI agents are traditional automation scripts
“There was actually a report AWS came out with today, it's interesting, that like, 70% of agents are actually not even, ah, AI agents, as you think of it. Like, most of the agent, agentic processes today are actually traditional script writing and just traditio…”
Fitzpatrick: MIT report shows only 5% of Gen AI deployments work
“MIT just released this report that five percent of Gen AI deployments are working in any form.”
Fitzpatrick: Recent college graduates are the highest adopters of AI tools
“I actually find a lot of the people coming out of college right now are some of the highest adopters of this and the most useful for these kind of tools, and so we're hiring more and more people of that profile, not less.”
Fitzpatrick: Robotics will take longer and require task-specific rather than broad-based systems
“I think robotics is another one that will take longer, but will be really interesting when it works. But by the way, I think even in that case, you'll need more task specific robotics, not just broad based.”
Fitzpatrick: Average bank spends 93% of tech budget on maintenance
“The average bank spends 93% of its cost, of its tech cost, on maintain initiatives. Seven percent go into building new things.”
Fitzpatrick: AI-native physical-world service companies will be highly disruptive
“Some of the most interesting new businesses are actual businesses using AI in the physical world that are AI native and that will be highly disruptive.”
Fitzpatrick: Recent Y Combinator class generated double the revenue of prior batches
“If you look at Y Combinator's recent class, I think it's like the largest, it's two X the revenue of any prior class.”
Fitzpatrick: CFOs will enforce strict ROI guardrails on AI within two years
“I think over the next two years you're going to see the CFO function put different guardrails on how this stuff is built and say, what is the ROI?”
Fitzpatrick: AI training will move into banking and healthcare next
“I actually think AI training will be used next in banking and healthcare, and then after that in, in many other different enterprise contexts.”
Fitzpatrick: 70% of US software is over 20 years old
“70% of the software in America is over 20 years old.”
Fitzpatrick: Public software multiples fell from 20x to 10x over two years
“In the last two years, you've seen public software multiples go from 20 X to 10 X, partly because of growth changes, and partly because they've tried, as they move profitable, their growth slows materially”
Fitzpatrick: Johns Hopkins research shows 250,000 annual US deaths from avoidable medical errors
“Johns Hopkins has released this thing, this stat that 25, 2250 thousand deaths a year happen because of avoidable errors.”
McKinsey grew engineering headcount from 100 to 7,000 during Fitzpatrick's tenure
“When I started, we had about a hundred engineers total in firm. By the time I left, we had 7000.”
Fitzpatrick: AI performance grew 40% to 60% over two years
“If you look at all the public benchmarks, models have increased 40 to 60% in performance over the last two years.”
KPMG report found 60% of consumers use AI weekly
“KBMG had this report that 60% of consumers use this on a weekly basis”