The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Villig: Lyft won't remain independent in five years under current cost structure
“I think that the, their only way out of this is to optimize their costs. I just generally don't see how they're going to be an independent company five years from now with the current cost structure.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 37:40 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Villig: Existing ride-hailing networks are the best go-to-market for autonomous vehicles
“Currently, I think the most contrarian view that I have not seen any investors really buy into so far is that these ride-hailing companies are really gonna be the best way for these self-driving cars to come to market.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:20:51 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2031
Villig: Autonomous vehicles are 7+ years away from full regulatory approval
“I hope that we're gonna get to the place where the technology and the costs are sorted out over the next five years, and then it's probably going to be a couple more years after that for the regulation to get sorted.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:14:10 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
Villig: AV developers like Waymo will not operate ride-hailing fleets long-term
“My view is that most of these companies Like Waymo over the longterm don't want to operate a car network. It's just too much hassle. So I think that these companies can build what they're fantastic at, which is building the software. And then there's going to …”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:14:34 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2034
Villig: Bolt will reinvest cashflow into expansion for next decade
“So our priority for sure is still growth. A hundred percent. So there's no intention for us anytime soon to become a profitable company that would be paying dividends or anything like that. Absolutely the focus is growth. However we have a set of markets where…”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:16:24 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Villig: Bolt plans to launch dining scan-to-pay payments next
“So the one I'm currently bullish about is dining payments. So in many parts of Europe and the world, it's actually not a common thing that you can scan the QR code, you see the menu, you can order and pay from that. And you can integrate it with everything els…”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:18:37 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Villig: No New Traditional Competitors Will Enter Ride-Hailing
“I don't really think that there's going to be new competitors entering the market in a traditional sense.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:26:28 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Villig: Future mobility disruption will come from new innovations, not incumbents
“Either it's going to be something new like electric scooters, or it's going to be self-driving cars, but I think it's going to be a completely different thing that's going to shake up the market, not the existing company.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:26:51 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2029
Villig: Car rental will be a multi-billion dollar category for Bolt
“A lot of conviction that long-term that's going to be a multi-billion dollar category for us.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:17:27 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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