why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Goldberg: Founder-led late-stage financing rounds like Front's Series C are aberrations
“At the same time, I think that's a bit of an aberration and many companies will decide to continue working with institutional leads where they get just a little bit more than you could handle from a single individual.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: Product-driven neobanks will win while performance-marketing reliant ones fail
“Oh, there's going to be a massive consolidation in this industry. So my belief is that this will be a tale of haves and have-nots, which the haves are the companies that use Product driven growth to get to massive scale and continue to find ways of just growin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: 2020-2021 VC vintages will be challenged but exceed 1x
“What I would say is I don't think those funds will do very well. I mean, the vintage is going to be very, very challenged. Will it be a one X? I don't know. I think it'll be better than a one X. Maybe. You know, but it's, they're gonna be tough funds.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: Fintech is not in a bubble and will see explosive growth
“I think fintech is booming. I don't think we're in a bubble. I think we're on the precipice of an explosion in activity in the space, and I'm all in.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: Capital markets will innovate new secondary liquidity products
“First off, I think products will evolve to create liquidity for those late stage private companies that give liquidity options to early stage investors. So I think the market will evolve. So just because companies are staying private longer, doesn't mean I thi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: Revolut is the closest candidate to a $100B neobank
“Actually, the last time I was on your show, I think I predicted a hundred billion dollar in Neobank coming out of, you know, somewhere. And I think we're a lot closer. I think Revolut's the closest we're gonna see to that.”
Prediction Partly held up
Goldberg: Chemistry will make about 25 investments over three years
“It's about a three-year fund, and we'll have, you know, about 25 investments in each fund.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: Chemistry will limit fund concentration to 10% per company
“I can't remember what legally we have as the concentration limit, but certainly we don't want more than 10% of the fund in a single company.”